WARNINGDAL
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.72 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Dallas Stars
◆ By the ModelThu, Nov 5Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Starsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): DAL 6 - 5 WSH — a win over the Capitals.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.72 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Next opponent
Last game report card · DAL @ WSH · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDALWSH
Offense
▸Basis
DAL Created 3.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.42 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.38 xG).
WSH Created 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.72 xG).
B+
88
B-
81
Defense
▸Basis
DAL Allowed 2.90 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.72 xG).
WSH Allowed 3.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.42 xG) and 23 rush shots (2.38 xG).
D+
69
D-
62
Transition
▸Basis
DAL Rush shots 23–29, rush xG 2.38–2.72 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
WSH Rush shots 29–23, rush xG 2.72–2.38 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
69
B-
81
Special teams
▸Basis
DAL 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.44 PP xG.
WSH 2-for-3 on the power play (67%; league ≈21%) with 0.35 PP xG.
A+
100
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
DAL -2.10 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
WSH -2.82 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
F
54
F
47
Discipline
▸Basis
DAL Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
WSH Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DAL Finishing +2.82 goals vs xG plus -2.10 GSAx of save luck = +0.72 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
WSH Finishing +2.10 goals vs xG plus -2.82 GSAx of save luck = -0.72 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B-
81
D+
69
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHDAL
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 23 rush shots worth 2.38 xG.
LUCKDAL
Ran hot in front of the net
Scored 6 on 3.18 xG — +2.82 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
WARNINGDAL
J. Oettinger couldn't make the stop
J. Oettinger allowed 5 on 25 shots (0.800) — 2.10 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
LUCKDAL
Wasted the best looks
0-for-7 on high-danger chances worth 1.42 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.
Warning signs
WARNINGDAL
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.72 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGDAL
J. Oettinger couldn't make the stop
J. Oettinger allowed 5 on 25 shots (0.800) — 2.10 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Positive trends
STRENGTHDAL
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 23 rush shots worth 2.38 xG.
STRENGTHDAL
J. Robertson led the way
3G 1A in 17:05 — the game's first star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB+avg 83▲ IMPROVING
DefenseD+avg 64▲ IMPROVING
TransitionD+avg 70→ FLAT
Special teamsA+avg 92▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingFavg 73▼ DECLINING
DisciplineC-avg 64▲ IMPROVING
LuckB-avg 74▲ IMPROVING
DAL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
ELITE
Load index
97/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 2nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
48,494
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
2,456 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d45
2d20
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
18 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,476 travel miles
Apr 2 – Apr 10
6 games in 11 days with 4,596 travel miles
Jan 4 – Jan 14
6 games in 11 days with 4,387 travel miles
Mar 3 – Mar 13
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
J. Oettinger couldn't make the stopcoachgm