Detroit Red Wings
5-on-5 · model-estimatedRed Wings: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (77% kill rate).
- Alex DeBrincat
- Moritz Seider
- Patrick Kane
- Simon Edvinsson
- Lucas Raymond
- Dylan Larkin
- Andrew Copp
- David Perron
- James van Riemsdyk
- Justin Faulk
- Emmitt Finnie
- Marco Kasper
- Nate Danielson
- J.T. Compher
- Axel Sandin-Pellikka
- Michael Rasmussen
- Mason Appleton
- Travis Hamonic
- Jacob Bernard-Docker
- Albert Johansson
- Ben Chiarot
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Gibson | 57 | 90.140 | — | +0.0 |
| Cam Talbot | 34 | 88.330 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincatR | 82 | 14.2 | +77.00 | +4.1 |
| Moritz SeiderD | 82 | 19.7 | +86.20 | +3.6 |
| Lucas RaymondL | 80 | 14.3 | +56.30 | +2.9 |
| Patrick KaneR | 67 | 13.9 | +67.70 | +2.5 |
| Dylan LarkinC | 74 | 14.4 | +46.20 | +2.2 |
| Andrew CoppC | 79 | 13.1 | +57.60 | +1.6 |
| Simon EdvinssonD | 72 | 19.6 | +70.90 | +1.4 |
| David PerronL | 65 | 11.4 | +58.40 | +1.4 |
| James van RiemsdykL | 72 | 9.6 | +54.10 | +1.1 |
| Justin FaulkD | 78 | 17.9 | +43.50 | +1.0 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 19th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
20 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 44 even.
6 games in 10 days with 3,459 travel miles
Oct 29 – Nov 7
6 games in 11 days with 3,464 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 21
6 games in 10 days with 2,397 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4