STRENGTHDET
D. Tarasov tilted the crease
D. Tarasov stopped 12 of 13 (0.923), +1.21 goals above expected.
Morning report · executive brief
Detroit Red Wings
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Red Wingsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): DET 2 - 4 TBL — a loss to the Lightning.
The model's top flag from that game: d. tarasov tilted the crease — D. Tarasov stopped 12 of 13 (0.923), +1.21 goals above expected.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
48
Wins (all)
51
Losses (all)
289
Goals for
310
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · DET @ TBL · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDETTBL
Offense
▸Basis
DET Created 3.19 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
TBL Created 4.41 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
B-
80
A-
92
Defense
▸Basis
DET Allowed 4.41 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
TBL Allowed 3.19 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
F
58
C-
70
Special teams
▸Basis
DET 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.83 PP xG.
TBL 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.09 PP xG.
B-
81
A
96
Goaltending
▸Basis
DET +1.41 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.
TBL +1.19 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
B+
89
B+
87
Discipline
▸Basis
DET Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
TBL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DET Finishing -1.19 goals vs xG plus +1.41 GSAx of save luck = +0.22 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TBL Finishing -0.41 goals vs xG plus +1.19 GSAx of save luck = +0.78 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
C+
77
B-
81
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKDET
Cold finishing night
Scored 2 on 3.19 xG — -1.19 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
STRENGTHDET
Power play cashed in
1-for-4 on the power play (25%) on 0.83 PP xG.
STRENGTHDET
J. Compher made a difference
1G 1A in 15:58 — the game's third star.
Positive trends
STRENGTHDET
D. Tarasov tilted the crease
D. Tarasov stopped 12 of 13 (0.923), +1.21 goals above expected.
STRENGTHDET
Power play cashed in
1-for-4 on the power play (25%) on 0.83 PP xG.
STRENGTHDET
J. Compher made a difference
1G 1A in 15:58 — the game's third star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB-avg 90▼ DECLINING
DefenseFavg 60→ FLAT
Special teamsB-avg 88▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingB+avg 80▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineB-avg 80→ FLAT
LuckC+avg 81▼ DECLINING
DET latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
42/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 19th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
35,405
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
11
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
2,839 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d47
2d18
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
20 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 44 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 3,459 travel miles
Oct 29 – Nov 7
6 games in 11 days with 3,464 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 21
6 games in 10 days with 2,397 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model