Minnesota Wild
5-on-5 · model-estimatedWild: a possession-driving team (67.9% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Drives 5v5 play (67.9% xG share).
- Elite top-end talent: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber.
- Leaky penalty kill (80% kill rate).
- Matt Boldy
- Brock Faber
- Kirill Kaprizov
- Quinn Hughes
- Ryan Hartman
- Vladimir Tarasenko
- Jonas Brodin
- Jared Spurgeon
- Jeff Petry
- Mats Zuccarello
- Marcus Johansson
- Joel Eriksson Ek
- Bobby Brink
- Danila Yurov
- Yakov Trenin
- Marcus Foligno
- Jake Middleton
- Nick Foligno
- Michael McCarron
- Nico Sturm
- Robby Fabbri
- Ben Jones
- Daemon Hunt
- Zach Bogosian
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | 50 | 90.410 | — | +0.0 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | 35 | 91.570 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt BoldyL | 76 | 14.2 | +80.50 | +4.3 |
| Kirill KaprizovL | 78 | 17.2 | +68.70 | +4.1 |
| Quinn HughesD | 74 | 22.2 | +71.90 | +3.3 |
| Brock FaberD | 80 | 20.4 | +80.20 | +3.0 |
| Mats ZuccarelloR | 59 | 14.6 | +59.60 | +2.2 |
| Ryan HartmanR | 76 | 14.5 | +69.60 | +2.2 |
| Marcus JohanssonL | 75 | 13.0 | +56.40 | +2.0 |
| Vladimir TarasenkoR | 75 | 12.2 | +63.10 | +2.0 |
| Joel Eriksson EkC | 70 | 13.2 | +58.00 | +1.9 |
| Bobby BrinkR | 68 | 12.9 | +53.10 | +1.2 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 20th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
19 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 44 even.
6 games in 11 days with 4,480 travel miles
Nov 21 – Dec 1
6 games in 10 days with 3,526 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,491 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 15