STRENGTHMIN
J. Wallstedt stole it
J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 25 (0.920) — +2.02 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
Morning report · executive brief
Minnesota Wild
◆ By the ModelThu, Nov 5Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Wildactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): MIN 4 - 2 PHI — a win over the Flyers.
The model's top flag from that game: j. wallstedt stole it — J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 25 (0.920) — +2.02 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
Season complete · final ledger
100
Games filed
57
Wins (all)
43
Losses (all)
329
Goals for
281
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · MIN @ PHI · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionMINPHI
Offense
▸Basis
MIN Created 3.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
PHI Created 4.02 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
B
84
B+
88
Defense
▸Basis
MIN Allowed 4.02 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
PHI Allowed 3.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
D-
62
D
66
Special teams
▸Basis
MIN 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.47 PP xG.
PHI 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.65 PP xG.
F
54
A-
90
Goaltending
▸Basis
MIN +2.02 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
PHI +0.56 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
A
95
B-
81
Discipline
▸Basis
MIN Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 16 on the other side.
PHI Took 4 penalties for 16 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
A+
100
F
50
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
MIN Finishing +0.44 goals vs xG plus +2.02 GSAx of save luck = +2.46 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
PHI Finishing -2.02 goals vs xG plus +0.56 GSAx of save luck = -1.46 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A
95
D
63
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
TACTICALMIN
The moment it turned
Danila Yurov's wrist shot from the point in P3 swung the game.
STRENGTHMIN
M. Boldy led the way
1G 1A in 20:15 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHMIN
Won the discipline battle
Just 3 penalties for 6 minutes vs 4 for 16 on the other side.
WARNINGMIN
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.47 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Warning signs
WARNINGMIN
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.47 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Positive trends
STRENGTHMIN
J. Wallstedt stole it
J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 25 (0.920) — +2.02 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
STRENGTHMIN
M. Boldy led the way
1G 1A in 20:15 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHMIN
Won the discipline battle
Just 3 penalties for 6 minutes vs 4 for 16 on the other side.
STRENGTHMIN
Q. Hughes made a difference
1A in 29:47 — the game's second star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseBavg 89▼ DECLINING
DefenseD-avg 63→ FLAT
Special teamsFavg 78▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingAavg 86▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineA+avg 91▲ IMPROVING
LuckAavg 82▲ IMPROVING
MIN latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
39/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 20th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
46,990
road miles flown
10
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
11
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
14
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
2,627 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d10
1d52
2d16
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
19 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 44 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 4,480 travel miles
Nov 21 – Dec 1
6 games in 10 days with 3,526 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,491 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 15
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach