New York Islanders
5-on-5 · model-estimatedIslanders: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Matthew Schaefer.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
Team finishing is -22 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Matthew Schaefer
- Bo Horvat
- Anders Lee
- Adam Pelech
- Mathew Barzal
- Brayden Schenn
- Simon Holmstrom
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau
- Emil Heineman
- Tony DeAngelo
- Casey Cizikas
- Calum Ritchie
- Marc Gatcomb
- Anthony Duclair
- Kyle Palmieri
- Ryan Pulock
- Max Shabanov
- Kyle MacLean
- Ondrej Palat
- Carson Soucy
- Adam Boqvist
- Scott Mayfield
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | 55 | 90.590 | — | +0.0 |
| David Rittich | 30 | 89.440 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew SchaeferD | 82 | 18.8 | +75.90 | +3.1 |
| Mathew BarzalC | 81 | 15.7 | +57.40 | +2.8 |
| Bo HorvatC | 68 | 13.8 | +67.90 | +2.7 |
| Anders LeeL | 82 | 12.9 | +64.50 | +1.8 |
| Brayden SchennC | 80 | 13.7 | +51.00 | +1.4 |
| Simon HolmstromR | 79 | 12.5 | +43.30 | +1.3 |
| Jean-Gabriel PageauC | 74 | 12.2 | +45.80 | +1.1 |
| Adam PelechD | 82 | 17.6 | +68.30 | +1.1 |
| Emil HeinemanL | 82 | 13.6 | +46.30 | +1.0 |
| Tony DeAngeloD | 76 | 16.8 | +47.60 | +0.9 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 23rd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 40 even.
6 games in 11 days with 5,479 travel miles
Dec 10 – Dec 20
6 games in 13 days with 6,640 travel miles
Nov 7 – Nov 19
6 games in 10 days with 2,599 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 1