WARNINGNYI
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 7 penalties for 33 minutes (opponent: 5 for 10).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Morning report · executive brief
New York Islanders
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Sat, Oct 312026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Islandersactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Oct 31): EDM 4 - 0 NYI — a loss to the Oilers.
The model's top flag from that game: paraded to the penalty box — Took 7 penalties for 33 minutes (opponent: 5 for 10).
Season complete · final ledger
97
Games filed
49
Wins (all)
48
Losses (all)
271
Goals for
289
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · EDM @ NYI · Sat, Oct 31
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionEDMNYI
Offense
▸Basis
EDM Created 2.72 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.09 xG) and 16 rush shots (1.57 xG).
NYI Created 2.35 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 0 high-danger shots (0.00 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.62 xG).
C+
79
C-
71
Defense
▸Basis
EDM Allowed 2.35 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 0 high-danger shots (0.00 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.62 xG).
NYI Allowed 2.72 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.09 xG) and 16 rush shots (1.57 xG).
C+
79
C-
71
Transition
▸Basis
EDM Rush shots 16–19, rush xG 1.57–1.62 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NYI Rush shots 19–16, rush xG 1.62–1.57 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C
73
C+
77
Special teams
▸Basis
EDM 1-for-5 on the power play (20%; league ≈21%) with 1.23 PP xG.
NYI 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.51 PP xG.
C+
78
F
52
Goaltending
▸Basis
EDM +2.35 goals saved above expected on 18 shots against.
NYI -0.28 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
A+
98
C-
72
Discipline
▸Basis
EDM Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 7 for 33 on the other side.
NYI Took 7 penalties for 33 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
A+
100
F
18
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
EDM Finishing +1.28 goals vs xG plus +2.35 GSAx of save luck = +3.63 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NYI Finishing -2.35 goals vs xG plus -0.28 GSAx of save luck = -2.63 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A+
100
F
54
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKNYI
Cold finishing night
Scored 0 on 2.35 xG — -2.35 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
LUCKNYI
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.918 — the bounces went against them tonight.
WARNINGNYI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 16 rush shots worth 1.57 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGNYI
I. Sorokin was beaten from the slot
I. Sorokin stopped only 60% of 5 high-danger shots (2 goals against from the inner slot).
Warning signs
WARNINGNYI
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 7 penalties for 33 minutes (opponent: 5 for 10).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
WARNINGNYI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 16 rush shots worth 1.57 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGNYI
I. Sorokin was beaten from the slot
I. Sorokin stopped only 60% of 5 high-danger shots (2 goals against from the inner slot).
WARNINGNYI
Power play came up empty
0-for-5 with the man advantage on 0.51 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Positive trends
STRENGTHNYI
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.62 xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseC-avg 84▼ DECLINING
DefenseC-avg 56▲ IMPROVING
TransitionC+avg 75→ FLAT
Special teamsFavg 65▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingC-avg 79▼ DECLINING
DisciplineFavg 74▼ DECLINING
LuckFavg 76▼ DECLINING
NYI latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
29/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 23rd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
36,524
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
10
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
2,871 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d43
2d21
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 40 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 5,479 travel miles
Dec 10 – Dec 20
6 games in 13 days with 6,640 travel miles
Nov 7 – Nov 19
6 games in 10 days with 2,599 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 1
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm - 02
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 03
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach