Vancouver Canucks
5-on-5 · model-estimatedCanucks: a balanced team (50.4% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (3 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- No standout edges flagged.
- Leaky penalty kill (71% kill rate).
PDO 0.974 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Team finishing is -18 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Kevin Lankinen sv% 87.5% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- None
- Linus Karlsson
- Pierre-Olivier Joseph
- Elias Pettersson
- Filip Hronek
- Marco Rossi
- Jake DeBrusk
- Drew O'Connor
- Evander Kane
- Brock Boeser
- Max Sasson
- Teddy Blueger
- Zeev Buium
- Arshdeep Bains
- Aatu Rty
- Nils Hoglander
- Tom Willander
- Liam Ohgren
- Marcus Pettersson
- Victor Mancini
- Elias Pettersson
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen | 47 | 87.550 | — | +0.0 |
| Nikita Tolopilo | 21 | 88.140 | — | -1.8 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus KarlssonC | 79 | 10.8 | +71.60 | +1.7 |
| Elias PetterssonC | 74 | 13.7 | +50.20 | +1.7 |
| Filip HronekD | 82 | 19.7 | +53.50 | +1.5 |
| Marco RossiC | 50 | 13.8 | +47.80 | +1.2 |
| Jake DeBruskL | 81 | 12.3 | +48.10 | +1.2 |
| Drew O'ConnorL | 82 | 12.8 | +55.30 | +1.2 |
| Brock BoeserR | 75 | 13.9 | +32.60 | +1.0 |
| Evander KaneL | 71 | 14.3 | +44.20 | +0.8 |
| Max SassonC | 66 | 11.0 | +30.90 | +0.4 |
| Teddy BluegerC | 35 | 14.2 | +35.10 | +0.4 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 27th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
24 games with more rest than the opponent · 24 with fewer · 35 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,090 travel miles
Feb 18 – Feb 27
6 games in 11 days with 4,332 travel miles
Jan 22 – Feb 1
6 games in 13 days with 5,429 travel miles
Nov 22 – Dec 4