WARNINGVAN
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.19 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Vancouver Canucks
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Canucksactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): ANA 5 - 4 VAN — a loss to the Ducks.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.19 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
100
Games filed
29
Wins (all)
71
Losses (all)
268
Goals for
390
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · ANA @ VAN · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionANAVAN
Offense
▸Basis
ANA Created 2.94 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.19 xG).
VAN Created 3.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.19 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.57 xG).
B
83
B+
87
Defense
▸Basis
ANA Allowed 3.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.19 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.57 xG).
VAN Allowed 2.94 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.07 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.19 xG).
D
63
D+
67
Transition
▸Basis
ANA Rush shots 25–22, rush xG 2.19–2.57 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
VAN Rush shots 22–25, rush xG 2.57–2.19 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C
73
C+
77
Special teams
▸Basis
ANA 3-for-3 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 0.52 PP xG.
VAN 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.61 PP xG.
A+
100
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
ANA -0.90 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
VAN -2.06 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
D
66
F
54
Discipline
▸Basis
ANA Took 10 penalties for 43 PIM vs 9 for 41 on the other side.
VAN Took 9 penalties for 41 PIM vs 10 for 43 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
ANA Finishing +2.06 goals vs xG plus -0.90 GSAx of save luck = +1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
VAN Finishing +0.90 goals vs xG plus -2.06 GSAx of save luck = -1.16 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
84
D
66
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHVAN
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.57 xG.
WARNINGVAN
K. Lankinen couldn't make the stop
K. Lankinen allowed 5 on 22 shots (0.773) — 2.06 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
STRENGTHVAN
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.61 PP xG.
STRENGTHVAN
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 5 high-danger shots (40% conversion on 1.19 xG).
Warning signs
WARNINGVAN
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.19 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGVAN
K. Lankinen couldn't make the stop
K. Lankinen allowed 5 on 22 shots (0.773) — 2.06 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Positive trends
STRENGTHVAN
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.57 xG.
STRENGTHVAN
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.61 PP xG.
STRENGTHVAN
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 5 high-danger shots (40% conversion on 1.19 xG).
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB+avg 79▲ IMPROVING
DefenseD+avg 51▲ IMPROVING
TransitionC+avg 68▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsA+avg 65▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingFavg 80▼ DECLINING
DisciplineB-avg 76▲ IMPROVING
LuckDavg 79▼ DECLINING
VAN latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
16/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 27th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
46,041
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
10
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
7
Longest road trip
5,080 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d48
2d18
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
24 games with more rest than the opponent · 24 with fewer · 35 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,090 travel miles
Feb 18 – Feb 27
6 games in 11 days with 4,332 travel miles
Jan 22 – Feb 1
6 games in 13 days with 5,429 travel miles
Nov 22 – Dec 4
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
K. Lankinen couldn't make the stopcoachgm