TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.1%.
Preview · PIT at COL
The Avalanche are the model's lean over the Penguins — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanFri, Oct 16
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 16, 9:00 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans Colorado because the Avalanche have been the better team at generating chances. The caveat is that both clubs are running hot by one measure, and that is where this pick could be tested.
The model projects a PIT 3.0 - 3.5 COL game, with the Avalanche at 57% win probability. That is a lean, not a lock.
Colorado owns the underlying play. Expected goals, which weights each shot by how likely it was to become a goal, shows the clearest gap, and shot attempts tell a narrower version of the same story. The full 5-on-5 picture for both teams is in the table.
| Metric | Penguins (PIT) | Avalanche (COL) |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 50.1% | 54.0% |
| Shot attempt share | 51.0% | 52.2% |
| PDO (shooting plus save percentage) | 1.022 | 1.065 |
PDO is the number that needs a skeptical eye. It adds a team's shooting percentage to its save percentage, and a reading this high usually drifts back toward normal. Colorado's is the higher of the two, but Pittsburgh's is running hot as well, so both sides could cool.
The goaltending edge sits with S. Murashov. He has saved 2.2 goals more than expected in 3 games, and his 91.1% save percentage is the better of the two. S. Wedgewood is at 0.0 goals saved above expected in 2 games, with a 90.2% save percentage.
The lean is Colorado's because the play is Colorado's. The caveat is that the luck on both benches could even out, and the goalie comparison rests on a small sample.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 57%
57%
COL
Model favorite
43%
57%
PIT50COL
COL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PIT 3.0–3.5 COL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PIT← edge
edge →COL
50.1%54.0%
51.0%52.2%
3.303.17
3.292.70
3.434.43
3.003.00
1.0221.065
COL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.022 vs 1.065) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7
PIT
3-3-1
+3 GD · 2d rest
COL
4-2-1
+9 GD · 1d rest
1.022
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.065
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.065 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGPIT
Regression watch: Penguins
The Penguins' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALPIT
S. Murashov was beatable last time out
S. Murashov stopped just 78.9% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.1%.
Regression watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.065 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Penguins' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.1%.
- Goalie matchup: S. Murashov (+2.2 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.1% SV) vs S. Wedgewood (+0.0 GSAx in 2 GP, 90.2% SV).
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.065 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PIT
vs CHI · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
S. Murashov
2 days rest.789 last start57:57 played
Backup Arturs Silovs · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson11:26
- B. Rust15:58
- T. Novak16:35
- C. Dewar12:33
- V. Koivunen11:14
- B. Lizotte13:46
- E. Chinakhov16:20
- A. Kuzmenko11:55
- R. Rakell19:47
- E. Malkin20:26
- B. Kindel17:05
- S. Crosby19:20
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak19:14
- S. Stastney15:38
- S. Girard18:23
- K. Letang19:44
- E. Karlsson20:24
- D. Carlile19:16
COL
vs DAL · Wed, Oct 14
Expected in goal
S. Wedgewood
1 day rest.909 last start65:00 played
Backup Mackenzie Blackwood · -2.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- F. Svechkov15:47
- B. Nelson23:02
- T. Hughes14:27
- P. Kelly10:22
- N. MacKinnon25:22
- G. Brindley06:46
- A. Lehkonen21:57
- J. Schwartz13:47
- M. Necas22:24
- N. Kadri24:16
- G. Landeskog15:49
Defence · 7
- D. Toews22:55
- C. Makar22:54
- B. Kulak19:45
- J. Manson12:32
- N. Juulsen08:20
- S. Malinski16:13
- B. Burns14:22
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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