TACTICAL
The Sabres own the underlying play
The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.3% 5v5 xG vs 38.9%.
Preview · PHI at BUF
The Sabres are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanWed, Oct 21
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 21, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Buffalo is the model's side over Philadelphia, and the case rests on how the Sabres have controlled play rather than on results that have been thin. Both teams have been on the wrong end of luck, which gives the lean a second story.
The model gives Buffalo a 57% chance to win. Buffalo comes in on 3 days of rest. Philadelphia has had 1.
The Sabres' edge shows up in the underlying numbers. Buffalo has taken 50.3% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, against 38.9% for the Flyers. Its share of shot attempts, 52.7%, points the same way, and it suggests Buffalo will spend more of the night pushing the play into Philadelphia's end.
The results have lagged. Buffalo has the better points pace, at 4-3-2 over 9 games. Its goal differential over that stretch is minus 7, which is the gap between how the team has played and what the scoreboard shows. Philadelphia's minus 12 over its last 10 games is the deeper hole.
Luck is where the regression argument lives. PDO, the on-ice sum of shooting and save percentage, is 0.977 for Buffalo and 0.965 for Philadelphia. The model reads both as running cold and due for positive regression, so the luck story cuts against both sides of this game.
In goal, J. Woll has the stronger case so far. J. Woll has saved 3.9 goals more than his shots predicted over 6 games, on a 91.7% save percentage. U. Luukkonen has allowed 4.5 more goals than his shots predicted over 7 games, on an 86.0% save percentage. That puts J. Woll 8.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
The lean is Buffalo, and it rests on the play more than the scoreboard. Both clubs are running cold, so the regression read is the part of this call most worth watching.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
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Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 57%
57%
BUF
Model favorite
43%
57%
PHI50BUF
BUF by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PHI 2.9–3.4 BUF; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PHI← edge
edge →BUF
38.9%50.3%
40.7%52.7%
2.273.20
3.573.16
1.553.00
3.183.67
0.9650.977
BUF holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.965 vs 0.977) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
PHI
2-5-3
-12 GD · 1d rest
BUF
4-3-2
-7 GD · 3d rest
0.965
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.977
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.7%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.3% 5v5 xG vs 38.9%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.3% 5v5 xG vs 38.9%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Woll (+3.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 91.7% SV) vs U. Luukkonen (-4.5 GSAx in 7 GP, 86.0% SV).
- J. Woll has the GSAx edge — 8.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sabres are the hotter team by points pace (4-3-2 over their 9 games so far).
- The Sabres are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sabres have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PHI
vs COL · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
J. Woll
1 day rest.923 last start60:00 played
Backup Dan Vladar · -1.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Couturier16:44
- A. Bump10:55
- C. Dvorak17:43
- N. Cates13:47
- M. Michkov14:37
- T. Zegras17:41
- N. Acciari18:31
- C. Knuble13:44
- M. Bunting10:16
- J. Gaucher12:45
- D. Barkey16:41
- P. Martone14:02
Defence · 6
- D.Jiricek09:20
- T. Sanheim28:21
- J. Drysdale22:51
- H. McDonald10:00
- N. Seeler23:40
- O. Bonk24:22
BUF
vs MTL · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
3 days rest.882 last start60:01 played
Backup Colten Ellis · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson21:17
- J. Norris14:30
- J. Danforth08:34
- P. Krebs09:04
- J.Kulich13:00
- J. Quinn21:30
- B. Malenstyn12:12
- R. McLeod14:35
- T. Thompson19:19
- N. Ostlund19:44
- J. Doan15:14
- K. Helenius09:11
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger20:47
- M. Samuelsson26:59
- O. Power27:39
- D. Gilbert11:31
- L. Crevier14:12
- Z. Metsa14:57
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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