The Matchup Desk
The model lines up each side's most dangerous forwards against the opponent's best available checker. Where the threat outruns the suppressor, it flags a mismatch to exploit. On-ice fit only — model-estimated, not a guarantee.
How to read this
Each column is one club's defensive homework: take the opponent's most dangerous forwards by , and assign each of them to the best available checker — the defender giving up the fewest chances per hour, measured by . When the attacker's creation rate is bigger than the checker's suppression rate, we flag a .
The honest caveat: real coaches match lines shift by shift, use last change at home, and lean on forwards to check too — none of which this optimizer models. It works purely from season-long 5v5 rates. So read a red flag as “this is where the game can tilt,” not “this player will score tonight.”
- LEFT №
- the threat's xGF/60 — chances he creates per hour of 5v5
- RIGHT №
- the checker's on-ice xGA/60 — chances allowed per hour, lower is better
- EXPLOIT
- threat outguns the checker — a red-flagged mismatch
- COVERED
- the best available suppressor holds up on paper
Toronto Maple LeafscheckVegas Golden Knights
How TOR should match up against VGK's top threats.
No qualifying matchups — sample too thin
Vegas Golden KnightscheckToronto Maple Leafs
How VGK should match up against TOR's top threats.
No qualifying matchups — sample too thin