Record vs rating
The gap between the points a team has banked and what its rating expects.
How it works
Read the sign
A positive gap means a team has earned a higher share of available points than its rating expects. A negative gap means its record is behind that expectation.
Give early gaps room to settle
Early-season gaps are mostly bounces. The rating leaves finishing and goaltending luck out, while the standings keep every result. The gap helps explain why those views can disagree.
The formula
The formula
Record gap = actual points percentage − points percentage expected by the rating. Express the difference in percentage points.
How we tested it
| Check | Finding |
|---|---|
| After 5 games | Rating 0.64 · points % 0.27 |
| After 41 games | Rating 0.69 · points % 0.64 |
The early difference supports looking beyond the standings. It does not supply a separate forecast for how quickly a record gap will close.
What does correlation mean?
Correlation, written as r, describes how closely two sets of results move together. A stronger positive relationship means better results in one tend to go with better results in the other. A value near zero means little relationship. It is not a percentage of predictions that were correct.
What it can't tell you
A gap does not mean a team is owed wins or losses. It cannot tell you when the standings will catch up with the rating.