Celebrini, Carlsson, Bedard: Value Past The Points
Three young centers, three five-year deals. Per minute, shot share, and what happens with each on the ice.
Celebrini, Carlsson and Bedard all signed five-year deals this summer. Together they make $51.8M a year.
Points make Celebrini look like the runaway. We wanted to know what each one does per minute, who takes the shots, and whether his team is better with him on the ice.
The deals
Celebrini's deal with San Jose is $18.8M a year. Carlsson's with Anaheim is $18M, and Bedard's with Chicago is $15M. Here is what each team gets for the money.
Points
On points it isn't close. Celebrini had 115 last season, Bedard had 75 and Carlsson had 67.
Celebrini also played all 82 games. Bedard played 69 and Carlsson played 70, so some of that gap is availability.
Per minute
Per minute, Celebrini still leads. At 5v5 he scored 2.83 points per 60, against 2.45 for Bedard and 2.09 for Carlsson.
His points aren't just extra minutes. Counting only goals and first assists, it's 2.33 for Celebrini, 2.07 for Bedard and 1.71 for Carlsson.
Usage
Celebrini was on the ice for 33% of the Sharks' 5v5 minutes. Bedard was on for 28% of Chicago's, and Carlsson for 24% of Anaheim's.
Carlsson also got the softest starts. 64% of his 5v5 shifts began in the offensive zone, against 59% for Celebrini and 57% for Bedard.
Shot share
Bedard takes the shot. He took 34% of his line's 5v5 shot attempts. Celebrini took 30% and Carlsson took 24%.
An even split among five skaters is 20%. Carlsson spreads it around more than the other two.
With him on
Anaheim plays better with Carlsson on the ice. The Ducks had a 5v5 expected goals share of 52.9% with him and 48.6% without him, a difference of +4.3.
San Jose was 48.1% with Celebrini and 48.4% without, a difference of -0.3. Chicago was 40.5% with Bedard and 44.0% without, a difference of -3.5.
The split
All three add offense. Each one lifts his team's expected goals for by about 0.35 per 60. The difference is defense.
With Carlsson on the ice, expected goals against per 60 fell by 0.13. With Celebrini it rose by 0.38, and with Bedard it rose by 0.93. Chicago allowed 3.61 per 60 with Bedard on the ice and 2.68 without him.
The read
Celebrini scores the most per minute, and he carries the heaviest workload of the three. Carlsson scores less, but the Ducks control more of the play when he's out there, in easier minutes. Bedard makes his own offense, and Chicago gives a lot back while he's on.
This is one season of 5v5 data, so treat it as a read on last year and not a ruling on the contracts.
All three are paid like stars, and last season they were three different kinds of value.
Sources
- NHL.com contract announcements for Celebrini, Carlsson and Bedard, July 2026
- NHL stats API skater summary, time on ice and 5v5 scoring rates, 2025-26 regular season
- NHL shift charts joined to Backcheck's expected goals model, for 5v5 on/off and shot share