The forwards are locked in. The defense is the question.

The Ducks open on Friday in Vegas, against the team that ended their season. Last year went 92 points, a first-round win over Edmonton, then a six-game loss to the Golden Knights in round two. It was a real step. It also left one part of the team badly exposed, and that part has been rebuilt over the summer.

The defense was the problem, just not the way you'd think

Over 2025-26 the Ducks had the puck. They were 7th of 32 in share of shot attempts (52.2%) and right at even in share of expected goals (50.4%, 17th). That is not a team being pinned in its own end.

What went wrong was what got through, and what happened next. Anaheim was 27th in expected goals allowed per sixty minutes (3.35), so the chances it did give up were dangerous ones. Then the goaltending finished 29th in save percentage (.893), and the Ducks allowed 288 goals, 29th in the league. Good teams don't survive that combination for long. This one survived it for two rounds.

Almost a whole new blue line

Four defensemen are gone:

• John Carlson, the trade-deadline pickup from Washington. Anaheim traded

his rights to Carolina in June, and he signed with Tampa Bay.

• Jacob Trouba, who signed with San Jose.
• Radko Gudas, whose rights went to Florida in a June trade.
• Olen Zellweger, traded to Buffalo.

Between them they had played 3,114 NHL regular-season games. The projected top five for opening night (Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Nick Jensen, Tristan Luneau and Tyson Hinds) have 1,148, and 694 of those belong to Jensen.

That is the bet. LaCombe and Mintyukov are the long-term pair the front office has built around, and Luneau just signed a six-year, $43.2 million extension after 14 NHL games. The ceiling is high. LaCombe played all 82 games last season and Mintyukov 73. Behind them, the experience thins out fast.

What we'll watch: expected goals allowed per sixty. Anything under last year's 3.35 means the new group is giving up fewer good looks than the old one did, whatever the scoreboard says.

Down the middle, signed for years

All four centers are under contract through at least 2027-28.

• Leo Carlsson is on his new deal: Anaheim matched Philadelphia's five-year,

$90 million offer sheet, an $18 million cap hit through 2030-31. He scored 29 goals and 67 points in 70 games last season.

• Mikael Granlund had 19 goals and 41 points in 58 games. He's

signed through 2027-28.

• Ryan Poehling signed a four-year extension in March, through 2029-30.
• Tim Washe was extended on Sept. 19 for four more years, through 2030-31.

The wings might be the best part of the team

Cutter Gauthier scored 41 goals last season and created more chances for himself, per sixty minutes, than 94% of NHL forwards who played 40 or more games. He signed a six-year, $13.5 million deal in September. Through camp he skated mostly on Carlsson's line. One projection has the lines split up for opening night, so call it likely rather than certain. If they start together, it's the pairing to watch all season.

Beckett Sennecke played all 82 games as a rookie, scored 23 goals, and graded in the 90th percentile for self-created chances. Troy Terry (57 points in 61 games) starts the year hurt after hip surgery and isn't expected back before mid-November.

Then there's Nikita Klepov, the 15th pick in June, who made the opening roster. He won the OHL scoring title as a rookie with 97 points in 67 games for Saginaw. The last rookie to lead a CHL league in scoring was Patrick Kane, who had 145 in 58 for London in 2006-07. Klepov's numbers aren't Kane's. The company is rare all the same.

Five numbers we'll track all season

• Expected goals against per sixty, against last year's 3.35.
• Team save percentage, against last year's .893.
• Carlsson and Gauthier's share of chances when they're on the ice together.
• Luneau's 5-on-5 chance share. In his last call-up the Ducks had 34%

of the chances with him on the ice.

• Klepov's minutes, and whether they grow.

A preview lands the morning of every game and a breakdown minutes after the final horn, all at [backcheckreport.com/ducks](/ducks).

Team ranks, rates, player lines, career games and the chance-creation percentiles are Backcheck's own numbers, from NHL play-by-play and our xG model (2025-26 final; career games are regular season from 2008-09 on). Contracts, transactions, injuries and junior stats are as reported by NHL.com, team announcements, PuckPedia, Pro Hockey Rumors, TSN and the CHL, checked Oct. 1, 2026. Opening-night lines and pairings are projections.