WARNINGTOR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 39 rush shots worth 2.53 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Toronto Maple Leafs
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Maple Leafsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): UTA 3 - 2 TOR — a loss to the Mammoth.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 39 rush shots worth 2.53 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
39
Wins (all)
60
Losses (all)
314
Goals for
355
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · UTA @ TOR · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionUTATOR
Offense
▸Basis
UTA Created 4.65 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.76 xG) and 39 rush shots (2.53 xG).
TOR Created 2.25 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.46 xG) and 22 rush shots (1.72 xG).
A+
100
C-
72
Defense
▸Basis
UTA Allowed 2.25 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.46 xG) and 22 rush shots (1.72 xG).
TOR Allowed 4.65 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.76 xG) and 39 rush shots (2.53 xG).
C+
78
F
46
Transition
▸Basis
UTA Rush shots 39–22, rush xG 2.53–1.72 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
TOR Rush shots 22–39, rush xG 1.72–2.53 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
A-
92
F
58
Special teams
▸Basis
UTA 2-for-3 on the power play (67%; league ≈21%) with 1.23 PP xG.
TOR 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.37 PP xG.
A+
100
F
55
Goaltending
▸Basis
UTA +0.25 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.
TOR +1.65 goals saved above expected on 36 shots against.
C+
78
A-
91
Discipline
▸Basis
UTA Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
TOR Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
UTA Finishing -1.65 goals vs xG plus +0.25 GSAx of save luck = -1.40 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TOR Finishing -0.25 goals vs xG plus +1.65 GSAx of save luck = +1.40 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
D
64
B
86
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHTOR
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 22 rush shots worth 1.72 xG.
STRENGTHTOR
S. Bobrovsky tilted the crease
S. Bobrovsky stopped 33 of 36 (0.917), +1.65 goals above expected.
Warning signs
WARNINGTOR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 39 rush shots worth 2.53 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHTOR
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 22 rush shots worth 1.72 xG.
STRENGTHTOR
S. Bobrovsky tilted the crease
S. Bobrovsky stopped 33 of 36 (0.917), +1.65 goals above expected.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseC-avg 85▼ DECLINING
DefenseFavg 56▼ DECLINING
TransitionFavg 60→ FLAT
Special teamsFavg 81▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingA-avg 83▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineC-avg 64▲ IMPROVING
LuckBavg 82▲ IMPROVING
TOR latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
7/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 30th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
37,460
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
13
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
7
Longest road trip
6,053 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d46
2d20
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
17 games with more rest than the opponent · 16 with fewer · 48 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 4,309 travel miles
Mar 3 – Mar 13
6 games in 13 days with 5,327 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 7
6 games in 12 days with 4,596 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 17
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach