Breakdown · NYR at BUF

Rangers shut out the Sabres, 4-0

FinalThu, Oct 9

The verdict · stolen

The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.38–2.92 and won anyway.

NYR 4 · BUF 0

◆ By the ModelJun 16, 2:10 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

New York won 4-0, but Buffalo controlled the game. The Sabres owned 55% of expected goals yet lost without scoring—a heist powered by goaltending.

I. Shesterkin (NYR) stopped 2.92 goals above expected, posting a 1.000 SV% against all 37 shots. A. Lyon (BUF) allowed 0.62 more than expected, posting a 0.906 SV%. That's a three-goal difference in goaltending.

Buffalo's problem wasn't chance creation. They built five rebound opportunities and held a 53% share of shot attempts. The problem was execution. Against high-danger looks, Buffalo managed one to New York's two. The Rangers scored twice on just twenty rush attempts, overperforming their xG by 1.62. One team converted; one couldn't.

Shesterkin made sure of it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 9

NYR

BUF

Rangers shut out the Sabres, 4-0

Chances 2.4 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Sabres deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

2.38

BUF

2.92

45% of the chances55%

The board read NYR 4, BUF 0. The chances read NYR 2.4, BUF 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+1.6

goals above expected

NYR2.38 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

BUF2.92 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Rangers scored 1.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 11:43NYRA. Lafrenière1–0
P3 14:46NYRC. Soucy2–0
P3 17:11NYRJ. Miller3–0
P3 17:25NYRA. FoxEN4–0

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

46 shots

Final

98 shots

BUF

52 shots

NYR BUF GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 0 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRBUF

1 / 2

0.49 xG

High danger

0 / 1

0.18 xG

2 / 12

1.22 xG

Medium

0 / 16

1.88 xG

1 / 46

0.68 xG

Low

0 / 51

0.86 xG

High-danger looks: NYR 1 of 2, BUF 0 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Shesterkin

+2.9

NYR · 37/37

A. Lyon

−0.6

BUF · 29/32

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers shut out the Sabres, 4-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 16–11

11:43NYRA. Lafrenière(V. Trocheck, A. Panarin)1–0

2ndshots 5–14no goals

3rdshots 12–12

14:46NYRC. Soucy(W. Borgen, J. Miller)2–0
17:11NYRJ. Miller(B. Schneider, A. Lafrenière)3–0
17:25NYRA. Foxempty net(S. Carrick)4–0

score reads NYR–BUF

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.38

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.6

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.067

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.9%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.38Expected goals2.92

BUF 55% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal37

2High-danger chances1

60All attempts (Corsi)68

Adjusted for score: NYR 43% · BUF 57%

Faceoffs · BUF won36%off40%neu30%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR1 / 2 · 0.49 xG

BUF0 / 1 · 0.18 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR2 / 12 · 1.22 xG

BUF0 / 16 · 1.88 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR1 / 46 · 0.68 xG

BUF0 / 51 · 0.86 xG

BUF went 0-for-16 from medium danger on 1.88 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

4 G · 2.38 xG · +1.6

BUF

0 G · 2.92 xG · -2.9

012345

NYR finished +1.6 against expected, BUF -2.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST3/22

SLAP0/10

SNAP0/5

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN1/3

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/14

BUF

WRIST0/25

SLAP0/10

SNAP0/7

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/4

DEFLECTED0/3

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/16

NYR

BUF

Off the rush

2 G on 20

1.23 xG

0 G on 31

2.14 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.25 xG

0 G on 5

0.45 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 3-for-22, BUF 0-for-25. NYR scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 37/37 · 1.000

+2.9

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.2+0.2

Medium0/161.9+1.9

Low0/510.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Lyon

BUF · 29/32 · .906

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.5-0.5

Medium2/121.2-0.8

Low1/460.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

98 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

46 shots

Final

98 shots

BUF

52 shots

NYR BUF GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, BUF right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Miller

#8 · C · —

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:52 on ice · +3

A. Lafrenière

#13 · L · —

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 15:54 on ice · +2

A. Fox

#23 · D · —

1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 23:17 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Oct 9

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 12:10 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 3.0–3.4 final with Buffalo at 56% win probability. That lean rests on a 50.6% xG share at 5v5 against New York's 47.5%—a real edge confirmed by shot suppression (49.6% Corsi% vs. 48.6%). But here's the catch: Buffalo's 1.020 PDO is running hot. That's the cumulative effect of lucky bounces and goaltending—factors that rarely persist. Expect some reversion toward New York's more temperate 1.009. In a close game, that margin matters.

The shutdowns explain why this edge exists. New York must neutralize Jason Zucker. He is the Sabres' engine: 14 goals, 14 assists, 1.07 xG/60, and 6 high-danger goals that reflect both volume and positioning in the crease. That output is durable. Buffalo's counter assignment is Adam Sykora, who has 3 goals and 1 assist on a glittering 20.0% shooting rate from 0.91 xG/60—but zero of his goals came from high-danger areas. His finish will normalize. New York is betting on variance to save them; Buffalo is betting it won't.

Josh Doan (15 goals, 18 assists, 1.01 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals, 11.5% shooting) deepens Buffalo's attack. Gabe Perreault (8 goals, 11 assists, 0.79 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals, 13.1% shooting) is New York's most reliable secondary scorer, but not explosive enough to carry if Sykora regresses.

The model favors Buffalo because the Sabres win through structure, not bounces.

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BUF 56%

56%

BUF

Model favorite

44%

56%

NYR50BUF

BUF by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 3.0–3.4 BUF; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →BUF

47.5%50.6%

48.6%49.6%

2.873.24

3.183.16

2.873.45

3.042.93

1.0091.020

BUF holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.020) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · No games yet

NYR

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

BUF

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.020

BUF PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICALBUF

Shutdown Assignment: Sabres

Key matchup: Neutralize Adam Sykora (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 0 HD goals)

TACTICALNYR

Shutdown Assignment: Rangers

Key matchup: Neutralize Jason Zucker (14G, 1.07 xG/60, 6 HD goals)

WARNINGNYR

Exploitable minutes: Vincent Iorio

Vincent Iorio is on ice for 3.12 xGA/60 and 27 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Vincent Iorio's shifts with the top line.

WARNINGBUF

Exploitable minutes: Jack Quinn

Jack Quinn is on ice for 2.96 xGA/60 and 54 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Jack Quinn's shifts with the top line.

Where the edges live

The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.

Regression watch

The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Sabres own the underlying play — 50.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

BUF

Jason Zucker14G 14A

1.07 xG/60 · 6 HD · 15.1% sh

Josh Doan15G 18A

1.01 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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