Montreal's 3-2 win buried a more decisive scoreline beneath the surface: the Canadiens controlled 69% of 5v5 expected goals, 4.45–1.96.

The gap between volume and quality tells the story. Chicago held 44% of shot attempts (22 on goal to Montreal's 28), a roughly balanced battle. But Montreal generated substantially more dangerous looks—0.073 expected goals per shot versus Chicago's 0.045. High-danger chances went 9-2.

S. Knight kept Chicago within reach with a save 1.45 goals above expected. S. Montembeault underperformed his underlying numbers, allowing three when 4.45 xG suggested closer to four.

Chicago was lethal on the rush, scoring twice on 21 chances. Montreal scored twice on 33 rush chances, a lower-efficiency secondary outlet overwhelmed by primary dominance. The power play crystallized Montreal's advantage: 2 goals on 27 shots (2.91 xG), turning zone time into actual scoring.

N. Suzuki recorded three assists in 21:56. T. Teravainen contributed two assists in 20:34. C. Caufield added one goal and one assist in 19:58.

Montreal controlled the game because it didn't just own the puck—it owned it in the right places.

This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a 2.7–2.5 Montreal win with Chicago holding 47% win probability.

Montreal is the hotter team: 5-3-0 in their last 10. Chicago is submerged at -5 goal differential over the same stretch. But the Canadiens are running hot at both ends, which carries a cost.

Montreal owns the underlying play at 48.0% expected goals share to Chicago's 42.0%, and controls 49.0% of shot attempts. Their PDO of 1.018 signals they're converting chances at an elevated rate, a streak that tends not to last. Chicago's 0.996 PDO indicates they're not experiencing the same luck.

Cole Caufield is Montreal's engine. He's generating 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes with 33 goals and a 20.0% shooting percentage, marking him as one of the league's most efficient finishers. Brendan Gallagher (0.89 xG/60, 5 goals, 13 assists, 4.6% shooting) operates in a secondary role—his assist total outpaces his goal total, signaling a playmaking function.

Chicago's offense rests on Tyler Bertuzzi and Connor Bedard. Bertuzzi (20 goals, 0.85 xG/60) supplies both volume and secondary scoring. Bedard (17 goals, 27 assists, 0.82 xG/60) is the playmaker—his 27 assists dwarf his 17 goals, and his 11.8% shooting rate confirms his value flows through creation, not finishing.

Mike Matheson is Montreal's defensive vulnerability. For Chicago, that's Anton Frondell.

Both teams are stuck at 0% on hard-to-define goals and rebound goals—a pattern worth monitoring if either breaks through.

Three Things to Watch

• Montreal owns the underlying play at 48.0% expected goals share versus Chicago's 42.0%.
• Montreal's 5-3-0 record masks an unsustainable PDO at 1.018; Chicago's -5 goal differential conceals their 5v5 competitiveness.
• Caufield's 20.0% shooting rate and Bedard's 27 assists define their respective roles as finisher and creator.