The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
New York survived a relentless Ottawa offensive — the Islanders won 5–4 despite ceding 58% of shot attempts. The reversal lay in efficiency: New York generated 4.53 expected goals against Ottawa's 3.45, claiming 57% of underlying scoring chances while firing fewer shots.
Quality over volume tells the story. New York's shots averaged 0.091 xG each; Ottawa's 0.057. High-danger chances favored the Islanders 8–3, a gap the final score barely captures.
Both teams exploited the rush. Ottawa scored 4 goals on 27 rush attempts; New York scored 5 on 24 — a slightly more efficient edge that decided overtime. Neither team converted rebound opportunities, leaving Ottawa's 6 created and New York's 3 unconverted on the board.
Ottawa's power play was devastating: 2 goals on 11 shots, 0.71 xG. New York had no such edge, relying on even-strength dominance. Goaltender I. Sorokin absorbed the assault, stopping 28 of 32 for a 0.875 save percentage (–0.55 vs expected). L. Ullmark made 18 of 23 for Ottawa, a 0.783 mark in a losing effort.
The turning point arrived early in the third: Anders Lee's wrist shot from the slot at 18:57. Lee finished with 2 goals and 1 assist in just 13:25, a small volume with outsized impact. T. Chabot recorded 2 assists for Ottawa in 19:47; T. Stützle added 1 goal and 1 assist in the same span — enough offensive output to threaten, not to overcome.
New York won where it mattered: converting chances that actually threatened the net.