S. Knight stole this one. Chicago won 2–1 in overtime, but the underlying numbers say it shouldn't have. ANA's expected goals (3.89) exceeded CHI's (3.65), yet CHI left with the win. Both teams then vanished when it mattered most—CHI underperformed xG by 1.65 goals, ANA by 2.89. That gap doesn't close without elite goaltending.

Knight was exactly that. The CHI netminder faced 39 shots and allowed 1, posting a 0.974 save percentage while beating expected saves by 2.89 goals. That's not variance; that's excellence. L. Dostal (ANA) posted a 0.933 SV% and overperformed expected by 1.65, a solid outing rendered irrelevant by the team around him.

The Ducks had the chances. ANA generated 6 high-danger chances to CHI's 5, then went 0-for-5 on the ones closest to goal. Seven rebound opportunities—evidence of effective net crashing—went unfinished. That offensive drought in front of a goalie in rhythm decides games.

CHI's attack was no sharper. Holding just 44% of shot attempts (30 to ANA's 39), the Blackhawks wasted nearly two expected goals. They entered overtime relying entirely on Knight's wall.

Ryan Donato ended it. His wrist shot from the doorstep at 02:58 of OT was the only finishing touch either offense managed. Donato earned first star with 1G and 1A in 14:06. J. LaCombe (ANA) and C. Bedard (CHI) completed the three stars with one assist each.

• #8 R. Donato (CHI) — 1G, 1A in 14:06
• #2 J. LaCombe (ANA) — 1A in 25:54
• #98 C. Bedard (CHI) — 1A in 24:37

The model favors Anaheim, projecting a 2.9–2.5 Ducks win with Chicago at 44% win probability. That lean makes sense: Anaheim is riding a 6-3-1 stretch and has seized control of the underlying game.

The Ducks dominate the shot metrics. They post 52.0% expected goals at 5v5 against Chicago's 42.0%, and own 52.0% of shot attempts (Corsi) to the Blackhawks' 46.0%. That territorial advantage translates to consistent offensive opportunity—but Anaheim's PDO of 0.981 reveals a team running cold on finishing. Regression is due.

Chicago's 0.996 PDO tells the inverse story: the Blackhawks have converted slightly above their underlying play, a position that historically collapses.

Anaheim's offensive load falls on Beckett Sennecke and Cutter Gauthier. Sennecke generates 1.03 expected goals per 60 minutes with 20 goals and 19 assists, including 8 high-danger chances at a 13.5% shooting clip. Gauthier matches that intensity—0.99 xG/60, 25 goals, 16 assists—though only 2 have come in high-danger situations, suggesting his efficiency may not hold.

For Chicago, Tyler Bertuzzi (0.85 xG/60, 20 goals, 15 assists) and Connor Bedard (0.82 xG/60, 17 goals, 27 assists) manage the offensive burden. Bertuzzi has converted 7 high-danger chances at an 18.0% shooting percentage; Bedard's 27 assists mask a goal-scoring pace (11.8% shooting) that lags his volume.

Watch S. Knight on the back-to-back—Chicago may deploy a backup or a tired starter. Anaheim should strike early rather than wait for PDO luck to arrive.

Three Stars

• Cutter Gauthier's 25 goals lead all forwards in this matchup
• Beckett Sennecke's 1.03 xG/60 is the game's highest volume creator
• S. Knight's back-to-back status determines Chicago's goaltending approach