The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
New York's 4–3 victory conceals a deeper truth: the Islanders created significantly more dangerous looks than the Sharks, yet nearly squandered the advantage through underperformance.
The underlying metrics tell a clearer story than the scoreline. New York generated 10 high-danger chances to San Jose's 5—a 2-to-1 dominance in the categories that matter most—while producing 0.096 expected goals per shot attempt, compared to San Jose's 0.059. That quality differential translated to a 4.97–4.01 expected-goals edge (55 percent to 45 percent).
Both teams underperformed their xG. New York fell short by 0.97 goals; San Jose by 1.01. Yet both goaltenders ran hot: I. Sorokin saved 1.01 goals above expectation on 33 shots (0.917 SV%), while Y. Askarov returned a near-identical +0.97 mark on 23 saves (0.852 SV%).
New York's advantage stemmed from execution: 2 rush goals on 19 attempts, and a power play that converted 2 on 13 shots (1.84 xG). San Jose answered with 3 rush goals on 33 attempts, but never closed the high-danger gap.
The inflection came at 10:16 of the third period, when Macklin Celebrini's wrist shot from the high slot cut the lead to one.