The Devils stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.33–3.27 and won anyway.
The Devils beat Minnesota 4-1 despite losing the expected goals battle, 3.27 to 4.33. The Wild dominated in quality chances—57% of the night's xG—yet New Jersey prevailed through goaltending.
N. Daws decided the game. He stopped 30 of 31 shots (0.968 SV%) and saved 3.33 goals above expected by turning away all nine high-danger chances Minnesota produced. The Wild converted zero of those nine. That gap—Minnesota 0/9, Daws 9/9 on high-danger attempts—was the difference.
The Devils' efficiency came from elsewhere. Despite ceding high-danger chances, New Jersey managed 35 shot attempts to Minnesota's 31 and scored twice off the rush. Jesper Bratt's wrist shot from the wing in the third period (18:43) typified how New Jersey made their chances count.
Minnesota's problem wasn't volume. They created eight rebound opportunities and zero conversions. Their shot quality of 0.064 expected goals per attempt—superior to New Jersey's 0.046—meant nothing without finishing. F. Gustavsson made 31 of 34 saves (0.912 SV%) in a losing effort, undone by teammates who couldn't convert the chances he'd earned.
This is the flip of how hockey usually breaks. Minnesota controlled play and chance quality. New Jersey won anyway because Daws was perfect and Minnesota wasn't.
Three Stars
- D. Mercer (NJD)—2A
- M. Boldy (MIN)—1G
- Z. Buium (MIN)—1A
