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← Sat, Oct 25 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at FLA

Panthers shut out the Golden Knights, 3-0

FinalSat, Oct 25
VGKVegas Golden Knights0FLAFlorida Panthers3
The verdict · earned

The Panthers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

VGK 0 · FLA 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:05 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas generated legitimate scoring chances and still scored zero. The Knights posted 1.59 expected goals on two high-danger looks, but Bobrovsky's exceptional performance—saving 1.59 goals above expected—converted a competitive underlying game into a 3-0 shutout.

The Panthers dominated throughout. They controlled 71% of expected goals (3.88 to 1.59), held 60% of shot attempts (26 to 17), and created far more dangerous looks: nine high-danger chances to Vegas's two. The quality gap was even starker. Florida's chances were worth 0.055 expected goals per shot versus 0.033 for Vegas—a structural advantage that extended well beyond the scoreboard.

A.J. Greer's wraparound from the doorstep (third period, 10:04) opened the scoring. S. Reinhart added a second. Bobrovsky's 17-for-17 saves made the shutout official. The 3-0 result looks decisive, but beneath the score lies an uncomfortable truth for Vegas: they had chances, and an elite goaltender simply took them away.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 25
VGK
0
FLA
3

Panthers shut out the Golden Knights, 3-0

Chances 1.6 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Panthers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
1.59
FLA
3.88
29% of the chances71%

The board read VGK 0, FLA 3. The chances read VGK 1.6, FLA 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
FLA
−0.9
goals above expected
FLA3.88 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK1.59 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Golden Knights left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 17:19FLAS. Reinhart0–1
  2. P3 03:29FLAC. Schwindt0–2
  3. P3 10:04FLAA. Greer0–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
33 shots
0
Final
76 shots
FLA
43 shots
3
VGK attackFLA attack
VGK FLA Goal
33
shots · 0 in
43
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKFLA
0 / 2
0.40 xG
High danger
3 / 9
1.90 xG
0 / 6
0.58 xG
Medium
0 / 14
1.45 xG
0 / 41
0.62 xG
Low
0 / 47
0.53 xG

The Panthers buried 3 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
S. Bobrovsky
+1.6
FLA · 17/17
B+
A. Schmid
+0.9
VGK · 23/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Panthers shut out the Golden Knights, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–5
  1. 17:19FLAS. Reinhart(C. Verhaeghe, E. Rodrigues)0–1
2ndshots 5–12no goals
    3rdshots 5–9
    1. 03:29FLAC. Schwindt(J. Gadjovich, A. Greer)0–2
    2. 10:04FLAA. Greer(B. Marchand)0–3

    score reads VGK–FLA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.88
    FLA chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.9
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.043
    FLA puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    58.8%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    1.59Expected goals3.88
    FLA 71% of the chance quality
    17Shots on goal26
    2High-danger chances9
    49All attempts (Corsi)70
    Adjusted for score: VGK 45% · FLA 55%
    Faceoffs · FLA won40%off43%neu50%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK0 / 2 · 0.40 xG
    FLA3 / 9 · 1.90 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK0 / 6 · 0.58 xG
    FLA0 / 14 · 1.45 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK0 / 41 · 0.62 xG
    FLA0 / 47 · 0.53 xG

    FLA went 0-for-14 from medium danger on 1.45 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    0 G · 1.59 xG · -1.6
    FLA
    3 G · 3.88 xG · -0.9
    012345

    VGK finished -1.6 against expected, FLA -0.9.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST0/19
    SLAP0/8
    SNAP0/3
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND0/1
    BAT0/0
    BETWEEN LEGS0/0
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/16
    FLA
    WRIST1/23
    SLAP0/3
    SNAP1/4
    TIP IN0/5
    BACKHAND0/5
    BAT0/1
    BETWEEN LEGS0/1
    WRAP AROUND1/1
    OTHER0/27
    VGK
    FLA
    Off the rush
    0 G on 17
    0.84 xG
    1 G on 25
    2.38 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.42 xG
    2 G on 4
    0.82 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 0-for-19, FLA 1-for-23.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Schmid
    VGK · 23/26 · .885
    +0.9
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger3/91.9-1.1
    Medium0/141.4+1.4
    Low0/470.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    S. Bobrovsky
    FLA · 17/17 · 1.000
    +1.6
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.4+0.4
    Medium0/60.6+0.6
    Low0/410.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    76 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    33 shots
    0
    Final
    76 shots
    FLA
    43 shots
    3
    VGK attackFLA attack
    VGK FLA Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    A. Greer
    #10 · L · FLA
    1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 10:52 on ice · +2
    S. Reinhart
    #13 · C · FLA
    1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 21:32 on ice · +1
    B. Marchand
    #63 · L · FLA
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:40 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Oct 25
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:03 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    This is as close to even money as you'll find. The model projects Vegas 2.5 to Florida 2.4, with the Golden Knights at 52% win probability—essentially a pick'em.

    The underlying advantage belongs to Vegas. The Golden Knights' 54.0% 5v5 expected goals rate dominates Florida's 49.0%, while both teams sit at 52.0% Corsi. Vegas controls the puck and generates the better chances.

    But Vegas is running cold. Their PDO of 0.983 sits below Florida's 0.989, suggesting positive variance regression is due. Florida comes in fresher—two days' rest to Vegas's four.

    On Vegas: Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60, 3G 6A, 1 HD goal, 4.1% shooting) is likely out. Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 1 HD goal, 4.3% shooting) becomes the primary playmaker.

    On Florida: Sam Bennett (0.97 xG/60, 18G 19A, 6 HD goals, 13.1% shooting) has been finishing at an elite rate. Brad Marchand (0.93 xG/60, 17G 9A, 3 HD goals, 19.5% shooting) shoots even higher.

    Vegas owns the play but runs cold. Florida comes in fresher. The model's near-even odds balance these factors perfectly.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 52%
    52%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    52%
    48%
    VGK50FLA

    VGK by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.4 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →FLA
    54.0%49.0%
    52.0%52.0%
    2.522.48
    2.112.56
    2.121.98
    2.102.21
    0.9830.989

    VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 0.989) says FLA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    6-2-2
    +6 GD · 4d rest
    FLA
    5-5-0
    +1 GD · 2d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.989
    FLA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Golden Knights have 2 more days of rest.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    A. Schmid
    4 days rest.957 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    FLA
    Expected in goal
    S. Bobrovsky
    2 days rest.706 last start
    Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    FLA
    Sam Bennett18G 19A
    0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh
    Brad Marchand17G 9A
    0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page