The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Dallas dominated possession—64% of expected goals (5.12–2.94), 55% of shot attempts (34–28), and high-danger chances 11–4. The Stars underperformed their expected goals by 2.12 and still won 3–2. That's the measure of their dominance: they were less efficient than their underlying play suggested, yet their control was still absolute.
The underlying metrics screamed Dallas. They generated 0.100 expected goals per shot against Carolina's 0.036—quality over quantity. They registered 11 high-danger chances and converted zero. Instead, the Stars scored twice from low-danger spots. On the rush, Dallas was lethal: three goals on 28 rush chances.
Carolina crashed the net effectively, collecting three rebound opportunities and converting none. Dallas crashed harder, generating eight rebound opportunities and converting none. The difference was the rush and the low-danger conversions.
Miro Heiskanen's snap shot from the high slot at 11:18 of the third period served as the turning point. He finished with two goals in 24:19. M. Rantanen added two assists in 21:03. T. Harley contributed one assist in 25:16.
J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 28 shots for a 0.929 save percentage, 0.94 goals above expected. B. Bussi stopped 31 of 34 for a 0.912 save percentage, 2.12 goals above expected. Carolina underperformed their expected goals by 0.94 as well. Bussi's excellence merely delayed the inevitable—Dallas's dominance was too complete to overcome.
