The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Vegas crushed Carolina in the underlying game. The Hurricanes fired 24 shots to the Knights' 35—a 41% attempt share—but generated only 27% of expected goals at 5v5 (2.02 to 5.50). Quality and volume pointed in opposite directions.
The scoring margin (6–3) reflected Vegas's edge in chance creation, not luck. Carolina managed zero high-danger chances; Vegas had twelve. Beyond the headline xG, Vegas's shot quality was sharper: 0.085 xG per attempt versus Carolina's 0.037. On the rush, both teams executed. Carolina scored three times from 26 rush chances; Vegas converted five of thirty-one—a more efficient rate that amplified their volume advantage.
A. Schmid played within the game for Vegas, stopping 21 of 24 shots (0.875 SV%), though he finished 0.98 below his expected save percentage. F. Andersen's 29 stops on 34 shots (0.853) kept Carolina closer than their underlying performance warranted. The Hurricanes overperformed their xG by 0.98 goals—a reminder that Carolina kept the scoreline tighter than the numbers suggested they should.
Vegas's advantage emerged through sustained offensive pressure and net-front activity. The Knights generated four rebound opportunities without converting, yet their volume of second chances still tilted the game decisively.
The turning point came at 19:38 of the third period: T. Hertl's wrist shot from the point found the back of the net, extending Vegas's lead at a moment when the underlying dominance translated to a decisive goal.