Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater

Breakdown · MTL at SEA

Canadiens edge the Kraken in overtime

Final / OTTue, Oct 28

MTLMontreal Canadiens4 SEASeattle Kraken3

The verdict · stolen

The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.82–2.05 and won anyway.

MTL 4 · SEA 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:47 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal won the scorecard matchup 4-3, but the underlying numbers said Seattle played the better game—and it wasn't close. The Kraken led 2-1 in high-danger chances and 2.05-1.82 in expected goals, a 53-47 split in their favor. Cole Caufield's poke from the doorstep at 00:44 of overtime delivered the winner, the culmination of Montreal's lethal rush game.

The Canadiens scored twice off 17 rush chances—a finishing rate that overwhelmed Seattle's superior underlying metrics. Montreal's power play was ruthless: 2 goals on 3 shots (0.28 xG), a conversion rate that defies expected-goal projections. Seattle's power play was equally efficient: 2 goals on 13 attempts (0.73 xG), a dominant display of special-teams prowess.

The goaltending breakdown. J. Daccord's evening was brutal. He surrendered 2.18 goals more than expected, dropping his save percentage to 0.810 on 17 saves against 21 shots. The implosion allowed Montreal to escape with a win despite inferior underlying metrics. J. Dobes posted a 0.857 mark yet also allowed 0.95 more goals than expected.

Three Stars

#62 B. Montour (SEA) — 2G, 1A in 25:17
#14 N. Suzuki (MTL) — 3A in 18:46
#13 C. Caufield (MTL) — 2G, 1A in 17:21

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Oct 28

MTL

SEA

Canadiens edge the Kraken in overtime

Chances 1.8 – 2.0Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Canadiens took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

MTL

1.82

SEA

2.05

47% of the chances53%

The board read MTL 4, SEA 3. The chances read MTL 1.8, SEA 2.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

MTL

+2.2

goals above expected

MTL1.82 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

SEA2.05 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Canadiens scored 2.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 10:25MTLC. Caufield1–0
P1 17:28MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP2–0
P3 05:55MTLA. NewhookPP3–0
P3 08:57SEAB. MontourPP3–1
P3 15:17SEAS. Wright3–2
P3 18:17SEAB. MontourPP3–3
OT 00:44MTLC. Caufield4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

MTL

33 shots

Final

64 shots

SEA

31 shots

MTL SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

MTLSEA

1 / 2

0.45 xG

High danger

0 / 1

0.27 xG

2 / 7

0.83 xG

Medium

1 / 11

1.27 xG

1 / 33

0.55 xG

Low

2 / 36

0.52 xG

High-danger looks: MTL 1 of 2, SEA 0 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

D-

J. Dobes

−0.9

MTL · 18/21

J. Daccord

−2.2

SEA · 17/21

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Canadiens edge the Kraken in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–5

10:25MTLC. Caufield(N. Suzuki, N. Dobson)1–0
17:28MTLJ. Slafkovskýpower play(C. Caufield, N. Suzuki)2–0

2ndshots 5–5no goals

3rdshots 7–11

05:55MTLA. Newhookpower play(K. Dach, N. Dobson)3–0
08:57SEAB. Montourpower play(B. Catton, M. Marchment)3–1
15:17SEAS. Wright(B. Montour, E. Tolvanen)3–2
18:17SEAB. Montourpower play(V. Dunn, J. Schwartz)3–3

OTshots 2–0

00:44MTLC. Caufield(N. Suzuki, L. Hutson)4–3

score reads MTL–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

1.82

MTL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.033

MTL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.7%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.82Expected goals2.05

SEA 53% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal21

2High-danger chances1

42All attempts (Corsi)48

Adjusted for score: MTL 41% · SEA 59%

Faceoffs · SEA won58%off20%neu47%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

MTL1 / 2 · 0.45 xG

SEA0 / 1 · 0.27 xG

Medium dangermid-range

MTL2 / 7 · 0.83 xG

SEA1 / 11 · 1.27 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

MTL1 / 33 · 0.55 xG

SEA2 / 36 · 0.52 xG

SEA went 2-for-36 from low danger on 0.52 expected goals — 1.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

MTL

4 G · 1.82 xG · +2.2

SEA

3 G · 2.05 xG · +0.9

012345

MTL finished +2.2 against expected, SEA +0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

MTL

WRIST1/20

SNAP2/7

TIP IN0/2

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

POKE1/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/9

SEA

WRIST0/13

SNAP1/5

TIP IN0/4

SLAP2/4

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/2

POKE0/0

BAT0/1

OTHER0/17

MTL

SEA

Off the rush

2 G on 17

1.39 xG

0 G on 20

1.24 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 1

0.07 xG

1 G on 4

0.55 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MTL went 1-for-20, SEA 0-for-13. MTL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Dobes

MTL · 18/21 · .857

-0.9

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.3+0.3

Medium1/111.3+0.3

Low2/360.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Daccord

SEA · 17/21 · .810

-2.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.5-0.6

Medium2/70.8-1.2

Low1/330.6-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

64 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

MTL

33 shots

Final

64 shots

SEA

31 shots

MTL SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — MTL left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

B. Montour

#62 · D · SEA

2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 25:17 on ice · +2

N. Suzuki

#14 · C · MTL

0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 18:46 on ice · +2

C. Caufield

#13 · R · MTL

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 17:21 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Oct 28

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:44 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this a 2.5–2.5 draw with Seattle at 51% win probability. That's as close to a toss-up as playoff odds get.

Montreal holds a Corsi edge at 49.0% to 45.0%, meaning they'll control the puck more often than not. Their expected goals share sits at 48.0%, however, suggesting that territorial advantage doesn't translate cleanly into actual scoring chances. Seattle counters with a 46.0% xG%, so the Kraken's defense isn't leaking prime real estate—they're simply being out-possessed.

The Canadiens' PDO of 1.018 is the risk here. That's a hot streak that statistical gravity will eventually correct; their shooting and goaltending are outpacing what the underlying play justifies, and regression hits every team. Seattle's 1.011 PDO is healthier, sitting closer to the long-run average.

Cole Caufield remains Montreal's centerpiece at 0.97 xG per 60 minutes, and his 20.0% shooting percentage on 33 goals speaks to elite finishing. Oliver Kapanen (19 goals, 17.8% shooting) pairs with Caufield as a secondary threat who also delivers when it counts. Seattle counters with Shane Wright generating 0.77 xG/60, but his 10.4% shooting on just 8 goals shows the Kraken haven't unlocked his full value. Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals) runs colder still.

Neither team has converted high-danger chances or rebounds into goals—both sit at 0% on these measures. That unusual flatness leaves room for either team to break through or keep bottling opportunities. Mike Matheson projects as Montreal's defensive weak link, while Chandler Stephenson carries the same role for Seattle.

This is a game where possession matters but doesn't guarantee the outcome. Montreal should win the shot battle; Seattle sits poised to steal it.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

SEA 51%

51%

SEA

Model favorite

49%

51%

MTL50SEA

SEA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 2.5–2.5 SEA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL← edge

edge →SEA

48.0%46.0%

49.0%45.0%

2.412.13

2.622.51

2.241.87

1.961.95

1.0181.011

MTL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.011) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

MTL

7-3-0

+6 GD · 3d rest

SEA

6-2-2

+2 GD · 2d rest

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Canadiens drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Canadiens drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Dobes

3 days rest.903 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA

Expected in goal

J. Daccord

2 days rest.939 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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