The Flyers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.81–2.00 and won anyway.
The Predators controlled the game and still lost 4-1. Nashville posted 3.81 expected goals to Philadelphia's 2.00—a 66% share at 5v5—but the Flyers' goaltending and finishing flipped the script.
D. Vladar was the difference. He stopped 32 of 33 shots (0.970 SV%), saving 2.81 goals above expected and stopping all five high-danger attempts. By contrast, J. Saros allowed 1.00 goals above expected despite a 0.824 SV% on 17 shots—the Flyers exploited their chances ruthlessly.
The Flyers' offensive advantage was narrow but lethal. They took the majority of shot attempts (18 to 33), controlled just 34% of expected goals, yet scored on quality: four goals from 20 rush chances, with three coming from low-danger spots that Saros should have had. Nashville's issue wasn't volume—it was conversion. The Predators generated five high-danger chances and converted none; the Flyers generated two and buried both.
Travis Konecny's wrist shot from a sharp angle (P3, 15:54) proved the turning point.
This was a masterclass in variance working both ways. The Flyers overperformed their xG by 2.00 goals; the Predators underperformed theirs by 2.81. Vladar was the linchpin—elite positioning and rebound control when it mattered.
