Motion-blurred skater in a blue sweater
Breakdown · NYR at SEA

Rangers run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 3 · SEA 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:15 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

J. Daccord's exceptional performance—stopping 1.2 goals above expected—was the only reason Seattle stayed competitive in a game the Rangers dominated across nearly every metric. The Kraken managed just 2.08 expected goals to New York's 4.20, a 33–67 split that should have produced a decisive victory, not an overtime thriller.

The Rangers' control was comprehensive: 27 shots to 13, six high-danger chances to three, 67% of 5v5 expected goals. They suffocated Seattle at every level.

Yet the Kraken stole what they could. They scored twice from low-danger spots—chances a league-average goalie expects to stop—and capitalized on 2 of their 24 rush attempts. That efficiency kept them within striking distance.

New York slightly underperformed their own dominance, scoring 3 goals on 4.20 expected xG. I. Shesterkin was solid: 11 saves on 13 shots for a 0.846 save percentage. J. Daccord, meanwhile, played nearly flawlessly, standing on his head to keep his team alive.

The end came at 2:42 of overtime when W. Cuylle's snap shot from a sharp angle finished it.

Three Stars: A. Fox controlled play with 2 assists in 25:04; C. Stephenson was Seattle's engine with 1 goal and 1 assist in 24:10; W. Cuylle delivered the final blow with 1 goal and 1 assist in 16:25.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Nov 1
NYR
3
SEA
2

Rangers run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.2 – 2.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NYR
4.20
SEA
2.08
67% of the chances33%

The board read NYR 3, SEA 2. The chances read NYR 4.2, SEA 2.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYR
−1.2
goals above expected
NYR4.20 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
SEA2.08 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 10:16NYRV. Gavrikov1–0
  2. P1 12:49SEAC. StephensonPP1–1
  3. P1 13:50NYRN. Laba2–1
  4. P2 06:59SEAB. Montour2–2
  5. OT 02:42NYRW. Cuylle3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYR
51 shots
3
Final
79 shots
SEA
28 shots
2
NYR attackSEA attack
NYR SEA Goal
51
shots · 3 in
28
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYRSEA
1 / 6
1.42 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.90 xG
1 / 17
1.98 xG
Medium
0 / 6
0.59 xG
1 / 49
0.80 xG
Low
2 / 32
0.59 xG

The Kraken went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Daccord
+1.2
SEA · 24/27
C
I. Shesterkin
+0.1
NYR · 11/13
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Rangers run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–5
  1. 10:16NYRV. Gavrikov(A. Fox, J. Brodzinski)1–0
  2. 12:49SEAC. Stephensonpower play(V. Dunn, E. Tolvanen)1–1
  3. 13:50NYRN. Laba(W. Cuylle, A. Lafrenière)2–1
2ndshots 6–3
  1. 06:59SEAB. Montour(J. Schwartz, C. Stephenson)2–2
3rdshots 9–4no goals
    OTshots 2–1
    1. 02:42NYRW. Cuylle(J. Miller, A. Fox)3–2

    score reads NYR–SEA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.20
    NYR chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.2
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    0.993
    NYR puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    63.7%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.20Expected goals2.08
    NYR 67% of the chance quality
    27Shots on goal13
    6High-danger chances3
    72All attempts (Corsi)41
    Adjusted for score: NYR 63% · SEA 37%
    Faceoffs · SEA won36%off27%neu53%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    NYR1 / 6 · 1.42 xG
    SEA0 / 3 · 0.90 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    NYR1 / 17 · 1.98 xG
    SEA0 / 6 · 0.59 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    NYR1 / 49 · 0.80 xG
    SEA2 / 32 · 0.59 xG

    SEA went 2-for-32 from low danger on 0.59 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    NYR
    3 G · 4.20 xG · -1.2
    SEA
    2 G · 2.08 xG · -0.1
    012345

    NYR finished -1.2 against expected, SEA -0.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    NYR
    WRIST1/27
    SNAP2/9
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN0/7
    BACKHAND0/2
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/21
    SEA
    WRIST1/15
    SNAP0/4
    SLAP1/4
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND0/3
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/13
    NYR
    SEA
    Off the rush
    1 G on 31
    2.61 xG
    2 G on 24
    1.92 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 5
    0.80 xG
    0 G on 1
    0.12 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-27, SEA 1-for-15. SEA scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    I. Shesterkin
    NYR · 11/13 · .846
    +0.1
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/30.9+0.9
    Medium0/60.6+0.6
    Low2/320.6-1.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Daccord
    SEA · 24/27 · .889
    +1.2
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/61.4+0.4
    Medium1/172.0+1.0
    Low1/490.8-0.2

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    79 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    NYR
    51 shots
    3
    Final
    79 shots
    SEA
    28 shots
    2
    NYR attackSEA attack
    NYR SEA Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    A. Fox
    #23 · D · NYR
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 25:04 on ice · +3
    C. Stephenson
    #9 · C · SEA
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 24:10 on ice
    W. Cuylle
    #50 · L · NYR
    1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 16:25 on ice · +2
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Nov 1
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:17 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects 2.4–2.4 with the Kraken at 50% win probability—pick'em. This is as close to a coin flip as you'll find.

    The Rangers drive Corsi at 49.0%, signaling territorial control. New York tracks 48.0% xG% to Seattle's 46.0% and 45.0% Corsi%—an edge in predictive modeling, though not decisive. Both teams sit at similar PDO (NYR 1.009, SEA 1.011), meaning neither has luck working dramatically in their favor.

    The rest edge favors Seattle. The Kraken have three days to the Rangers' one, a meaningful recovery window on the eve of a tight matchup.

    I. Shesterkin enters on a back-to-back. Monitor whether New York starts him or pulls the backup—a fatigued Shesterkin could tip the goaltending edge toward Seattle.

    Adam Sykora leads the Rangers at 0.91 xG/60 with 3G, 1A, 20.0% shooting, and zero high-danger goals. Gabe Perreault sits at 0.79 xG/60, 8G, 11A, with two high-danger goals and 13.1% shooting. For Seattle, Shane Wright carries 0.77 xG/60, 8G, 10A, and four high-danger goals at 10.4% shooting. Berkly Catton trails at 0.68 xG/60, 6G, 8A, with five high-danger goals and 8.8% shooting—efficient despite lower volume.

    Vincent Iorio represents New York's defensive weak link; Chandler Stephenson does the same for Seattle. Both units have recorded 0% high-danger and 0% rebound goal rates—an unusual run but indicative of restricted second-chance opportunities on both ends.

    This one genuinely could go either way.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    SEA 50%
    50%
    SEA
    Model favorite
    50%
    50%
    NYR50SEA

    SEA by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.4–2.4 SEA; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NYR← edge
    edge →SEA
    48.0%46.0%
    49.0%45.0%
    2.262.13
    2.402.51
    1.881.87
    1.901.95
    1.0091.011

    NYR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    NYR
    4-4-2
    -2 GD · 1d rest
    SEA
    5-2-3
    -1 GD · 3d rest
    1.009
    NYR PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.011
    SEA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Rangers drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Things to watch
    • The Rangers drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • I. Shesterkin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Kraken have 2 more days of rest.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    NYR
    Expected in goal
    I. Shesterkin
    back-to-back.917 last start
    Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    SEA
    Expected in goal
    J. Daccord
    3 days rest.810 last start
    Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NYR
    Adam Sykora3G 1A
    0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh
    Gabe Perreault8G 11A
    0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh
    SEA
    Shane Wright8G 10A
    0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
    Berkly Catton6G 8A
    0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next