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Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
← Sun, Nov 2 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at NYI

Islanders hold off the Blue Jackets

FinalSun, Nov 2
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2NYINew York Islanders3
The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 2 · NYI 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:21 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus couldn't convert—0-for-7 on high-danger chances—and lost 3-2 to the Islanders, who won despite modest underlying metrics.

New York held 55% of expected goals at 5-on-5 (4.90–3.94) and 64% of shot attempts (39–22). Columbus had seven prime looks to the Islanders' ten. The difference wasn't one of dominance; it was one of finishing.

Both goaltenders played above expectation in a strange night. E. Merzlikins (CBJ) saved 1.90 goals above expected on 36 saves, yet still lost. D. Rittich (NYI) was equally fortunate at 1.94 above expected. Both teams underperformed their xG by roughly two goals—a rare symmetry in what could've been a different game.

Simon Holmstrom's backhander from the doorstep in the third period settled it. The Islanders didn't dominate; they crashed the net methodically, creating eight rebound opportunities, while Columbus's rush attack (2 goals on 21 chances) kept things close.

The result: New York earned its advantages. Columbus squandered theirs.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 2
CBJ
2
NYI
3

Islanders hold off the Blue Jackets

Chances 3.9 – 4.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
3.94
NYI
4.90
45% of the chances55%

The board read CBJ 2, NYI 3. The chances read CBJ 3.9, NYI 4.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
−1.9
goals above expected
NYI4.90 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ3.94 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blue Jackets left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 05:53NYIM. SchaeferPP0–1
  2. P2 15:21CBJM. Wood1–1
  3. P3 12:10CBJD. Mateychuk2–1
  4. P3 18:53NYIM. SchaeferPP2–2
  5. P3 19:22NYIS. Holmstrom2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
33 shots
2
Final
86 shots
NYI
53 shots
3
CBJ attackNYI attack
CBJ NYI Goal
33
shots · 2 in
53
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJNYI
0 / 7
2.35 xG
High danger
1 / 10
2.69 xG
2 / 13
1.31 xG
Medium
1 / 14
1.54 xG
0 / 25
0.29 xG
Low
1 / 46
0.67 xG

The Blue Jackets went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
D. Rittich
+1.9
NYI · 20/22
A
E. Merzlikins
+1.9
CBJ · 36/39
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Islanders hold off the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 3–18
  1. 05:53NYIM. Schaeferpower play(B. Horvat, K. Palmieri)0–1
2ndshots 14–10
  1. 15:21CBJM. Wood(A. Fantilli, B. Jenner)1–1
3rdshots 5–11
  1. 12:10CBJD. Mateychuk(K. Marchenko, S. Monahan)2–1
  2. 18:53NYIM. Schaeferpower play2–2
  3. 19:22NYIS. Holmstrom(A. Lee, J. Pageau)2–3

score reads CBJ–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.90
NYI chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.9
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
0.998
NYI puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
60.9%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.94Expected goals4.90
NYI 55% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal39
7High-danger chances10
45All attempts (Corsi)70
Adjusted for score: CBJ 41% · NYI 59%
Faceoffs · NYI won71%off71%neu63%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CBJ0 / 7 · 2.35 xG
NYI1 / 10 · 2.69 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CBJ2 / 13 · 1.31 xG
NYI1 / 14 · 1.54 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CBJ0 / 25 · 0.29 xG
NYI1 / 46 · 0.67 xG

CBJ went 0-for-7 from high danger on 2.35 expected goals — 2.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CBJ
2 G · 3.94 xG · -1.9
NYI
3 G · 4.90 xG · -1.9
0123456

CBJ finished -1.9 against expected, NYI -1.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CBJ
SNAP0/11
BACKHAND1/4
WRIST0/8
SLAP0/3
TIP IN1/5
DEFLECTED0/1
POKE0/1
OTHER0/12
NYI
SNAP2/35
BACKHAND1/8
WRIST0/1
SLAP0/6
TIP IN0/3
DEFLECTED0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/17
CBJ
NYI
Off the rush
2 G on 21
2.93 xG
1 G on 27
2.33 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.64 xG
1 G on 8
1.24 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: CBJ went 0-for-11, NYI 2-for-35. CBJ scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
E. Merzlikins
CBJ · 36/39 · .923
+1.9
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/102.7+1.7
Medium1/141.5+0.5
Low1/460.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich
NYI · 20/22 · .909
+1.9
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/72.4+2.4
Medium2/131.3-0.7
Low0/250.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

86 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CBJ
33 shots
2
Final
86 shots
NYI
53 shots
3
CBJ attackNYI attack
CBJ NYI Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Schaefer
#48 · D · NYI
2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 17:24 on ice
B. Horvat
#14 · C · NYI
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 20:28 on ice
K. Marchenko
#86 · R · CBJ
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 17:44 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Nov 2
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:18 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.7 goals for Columbus and 2.6 for New York, with the Blue Jackets at 51% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as exists.

Columbus commands the underlying play. At 5v5, the Blue Jackets generate 52.0% expected goals and control 51.0% of shot attempts—consistent territorial advantage that translates to shot location. New York operates at 48.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi. That five-point expected-goals gap reflects consistent generation from higher-danger areas for Columbus, while New York defends deeper. New York's 0.993 PDO suggests some regression risk; Columbus sits at 1.003, perfectly neutral.

Players to Watch

Blue Jackets

  • Boone Jenner — 0.98 xG/60, 11G 21A, 2 HD goals, 9.6% shooting
  • Mathieu Olivier — 0.89 xG/60, 12G 9A, 1 HD goals, 13.3% shooting

Islanders

  • Anders Lee — 1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting
  • Bo Horvat — 0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting

The decision maker: Anders Lee generates at 1.20 xG/60 but converts at just 6.4%, efficiency lagging his volume. Boone Jenner operates from tighter areas but at higher conversion rates. Bo Horvat generates fewer chances (0.87 xG/60) yet has cashed 18 goals, a mark of clinical finishing.

Neither team generates secondary scoring from loose play. Both Columbus and New York register 0% of their goals from high-danger and rebound situations outside their star production—these teams win through superior placement, not scrambling for second chances. Conor Garland exposes Columbus defensively, as Alexander Romanov does for New York, but those vulnerabilities matter only if the other team can manufacture chaos. They can't.

Columbus's possession advantage and superior shot location form a legitimate case for favorites. The 51% projection either undervalues that edge or properly reflects execution uncertainty.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 51%
51%
CBJ
Model favorite
51%
49%
CBJ50NYI

CBJ by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.7–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →NYI
52.0%48.0%
51.0%49.0%
2.632.48
2.432.69
2.121.78
1.981.94
1.0030.993

CBJ holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.993) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
CBJ
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
NYI
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.993
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
NYI
Anders Lee9G 20A
1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
Bo Horvat18G 10A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page