The Maple Leafs stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.84–2.26 and won anyway.
Pittsburgh dominated the game on paper. The Penguins controlled 63% of expected goals at 5v5, outshooting Toronto 37–20, and generated three high-danger chances to Toronto's two. The scoreboard, though, said 4–3 Leafs. This was a heist.
The difference was goaltending and finishing. A. Stolarz stopped 34 of 37 Penguins attempts for a 0.919 save percentage, beating his expected mark by 0.84 goals. T. Jarry, meanwhile, surrendered 1.74 more goals than his underlying numbers predicted, allowing 4 goals on just 20 shots. Toronto overperformed its xG by 1.74 goals overall—either elite shot placement or lucky bounces, probably both.
But there was method to Toronto's night. The Leafs were clinical off the rush, converting 2 of their 20 rush chances. Pittsburgh matched that efficiency—2 goals from 29 rush opportunities—yet it wasn't enough. Bobby McMann's wrist shot from the slot at 13:43 of the third period proved decisive, a goal that broke through Pittsburgh's expected-goal advantage.
The Three Stars tell the story. W. Nylander led Toronto with 2 goals and an assist across 19:04 of ice time. B. Kindel answered for Pittsburgh with 2 goals in 22:23. A. Matthews added a goal and assist for Toronto in 21:58. None of it mattered quite as much as those saves Stolarz made when it counted.
Pittsburgh's dominance in underlying metrics—the shot volume, the controlled looks, the xG edge—won't show up in the standings. Toronto's win did.
