Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a green sweater
← Sat, Nov 8 · the slate
Breakdown · DAL at NSH

Stars run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Nov 8
DALDallas Stars5NSHNashville Predators4
The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DAL 5 · NSH 4
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:18 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas's lopsided advantage in high-danger chances—6 to 2—makes their 5–4 victory seem closer than it was. The Stars ran the Predators off the ice on the underlying metrics, and the scoreline obscured that dominance.

Dallas controlled 60% of 5v5 expected goals (2.82 to 1.85). Their chances were of higher quality: 0.067 expected goals per shot versus Nashville's 0.041. Dallas won the rush decisively, scoring 4 goals on 24 rush chances; Nashville scored 2 on 19.

Both teams overperformed their expected goals by nearly identical margins—Dallas by 2.18 goals, Nashville by 2.15—which explains why the game stayed competitive despite the underlying disparity. J. Oettinger (DAL) allowed 4 goals on 21 shots (0.810 SV%, -2.15 vs expected), while J. Annunen (NSH) allowed 5 on 22 (0.773 SV%, -2.18 vs expected). Both gave up more goals than the underlying metrics would suggest.

Nashville created 3 rebound opportunities but converted none; Dallas created 3 and converted 1. The Predators squeezed production from limited high-danger looks on the rush—elite finishing masking a thin playbook. The Stars' efficiency gap finally broke through in the third period: Sam Steel's wrist shot from the slot (10:20) proved to be the turning point.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 8
DAL
5
NSH
4

Stars run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.8 – 1.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
DAL
2.82
NSH
1.85
60% of the chances40%

The board read DAL 5, NSH 4. The chances read DAL 2.8, NSH 1.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
+2.2
goals above expected
DAL2.82 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH1.85 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored

The Stars scored 2.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:26DALM. Bourque1–0
  2. P1 17:46NSHL. Evangelista1–1
  3. P2 00:13DALR. HintzPP2–1
  4. P2 04:43NSHN. Hague2–2
  5. P2 05:10NSHF. Forsberg2–3
  6. P3 02:20DALJ. Hryckowian3–3
  7. P3 05:11NSHS. StamkosPP3–4
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DAL
34 shots
5
Final
65 shots
NSH
31 shots
4
DAL attackNSH attack
DAL NSH Goal
34
shots · 5 in
31
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DALNSH
2 / 6
1.37 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.45 xG
3 / 10
1.04 xG
Medium
2 / 11
0.96 xG
0 / 26
0.41 xG
Low
2 / 32
0.44 xG

The Stars buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
F
J. Oettinger
−2.1
DAL · 17/21
F
J. Annunen
−2.2
NSH · 17/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–4
  1. 06:26DALM. Bourque(M. Heiskanen, I. Lyubushkin)1–0
  2. 17:46NSHL. Evangelista(S. Stastney, R. O'Reilly)1–1
2ndshots 9–7
  1. 00:13DALR. Hintzpower play(W. Johnston, M. Heiskanen)2–1
  2. 04:43NSHN. Hague(N. Blankenburg, E. Haula)2–2
  3. 05:10NSHF. Forsberg(R. O'Reilly, N. Hague)2–3
3rdshots 6–10
  1. 02:20DALJ. Hryckowian(O. Bäck, M. Bourque)3–3
  2. 05:11NSHS. Stamkospower play(N. Blankenburg, M. Wood)3–4
  3. 09:33DALA. Erne(C. Blackwell, A. Petrovic)4–4
  4. 10:20DALS. Steel(W. Johnston, M. Rantanen)5–4

score reads DAL–NSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.82
DAL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.2
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.030
DAL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
48.3%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.82Expected goals1.85
DAL 60% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal21
6High-danger chances2
42All attempts (Corsi)45
Adjusted for score: DAL 48% · NSH 52%
Faceoffs · NSH won57%off55%neu52%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
DAL2 / 6 · 1.37 xG
NSH0 / 2 · 0.45 xG
Medium dangermid-range
DAL3 / 10 · 1.04 xG
NSH2 / 11 · 0.96 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
DAL0 / 26 · 0.41 xG
NSH2 / 32 · 0.44 xG

DAL went 3-for-10 from medium danger on 1.04 expected goals — 2.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
DAL
5 G · 2.82 xG · +2.2
NSH
4 G · 1.85 xG · +2.1
0123456

DAL finished +2.2 against expected, NSH +2.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
DAL
WRIST4/22
SLAP0/3
SNAP0/4
TIP IN1/3
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
POKE0/0
OTHER0/8
NSH
WRIST2/15
SLAP1/6
SNAP1/5
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
POKE0/1
OTHER0/14
DAL
NSH
Off the rush
4 G on 24
2.23 xG
2 G on 19
1.17 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 3
0.48 xG
0 G on 3
0.51 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 4-for-22, NSH 2-for-15. DAL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Oettinger
DAL · 17/21 · .810
-2.1
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.5+0.5
Medium2/111.0-1.0
Low2/320.4-1.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Annunen
NSH · 17/22 · .773
-2.2
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/61.4-0.6
Medium3/101.0-2.0
Low0/260.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

65 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
DAL
34 shots
5
Final
65 shots
NSH
31 shots
4
DAL attackNSH attack
DAL NSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Heiskanen
#4 · D · DAL
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 25:41 on ice · -1
R. O'Reilly
#90 · C · NSH
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 22:48 on ice · +1
W. Johnston
#53 · C · DAL
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:42 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Nov 8
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:02 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a DAL 2.5 - 2.5 NSH game with the Predators at 50% win probability—this is a pure pick'em.

Both teams are treading water. The Predators sit -10 on goal differential over their last 10; Dallas is -7. Neither has momentum, but Dallas's deeper xG% (51.0% to Nashville's 49.0%) suggests they're generating superior scoring chances despite the form skid.

The Predators control territory: they drive Corsi at 50.0%, while Dallas checks in at 47.0%. This means Nashville will likely out-shot Dallas, but quality matters more than volume. Dallas's edge in expected goals indicates they're getting the better looks.

Dallas carries unsustainable luck baked into their PDO of 1.024—they're overperforming their shot quality and should regress. Nashville's 0.992 PDO sits near equilibrium, so they're not running on fumes.

Both goalies are on back-to-backs. Watch for either a backup appearance or a tired starter from J. Saros or J. Oettinger.

Jason Robertson is Dallas's engine: 0.96 xG/60, 25G 21A, 2 HD goals, and a 12.4% shooting rate. Michael Bunting provides secondary punch at 0.83 xG/60, 8G 14A, and 7.6% shooting. Nashville's Filip Forsberg counters with 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, and 13.6% shooting. Zachary L'Heureux adds depth at 0.85 xG/60 with 4G 0A, 1 HD goal, and 16.0% shooting.

The model is saying what your eye should tell you: no edge exists. Dallas has a marginal advantage in chance quality and doesn't need to shed as much regressed luck, but Nashville will own the puck. The Predators' territorial control pairs with Dallas's offensive efficiency—a classic stalemate. Call it a flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NSH 51%
50%
NSH
Model favorite
50%
50%
DAL50NSH

NSH by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 2.5–2.5 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →NSH
51.0%49.0%
47.0%50.0%
2.362.48
2.292.58
2.071.84
1.682.21
1.0240.992

DAL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 0.992) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
DAL
4-3-3
-7 GD · 1d rest
NSH
3-5-2
-10 GD · 1d rest
1.024
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.992
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Predators drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Predators drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Oettinger is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Predators are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Stars are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
DAL
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
back-to-back.750 last start
Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NSH
Expected in goal
J. Saros
back-to-back.920 last start
Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL
Jason Robertson25G 21A
0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
Michael Bunting8G 14A
0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
NSH
Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
Filip Forsberg23G 17A
0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page