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← Sat, Nov 8 · the slate
Breakdown · BOS at TOR

Bruins hold off the Maple Leafs

FinalSat, Nov 8
BOSBoston Bruins5TORToronto Maple Leafs3
The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.19–4.65 and won anyway.

BOS 5 · TOR 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:04 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins beat the Maple Leafs 5-3, but the underlying numbers said the game was closer to even — and favored Toronto. Expected goals split 4.65–4.19 in Toronto's favor.

The Maple Leafs controlled play: 46% of shot attempts, 33–39 on goal, and 8–6 on high-danger chances. They should have won. Instead, Boston's goaltending held while Toronto's did not.

The variance was enormous. The Maple Leafs underperformed their expected goals by 1.65 goals. The Bruins overperformed by 0.81. That swing is the entire game.

J. Swayman (BOS) stopped 1.65 goals above expected, perfect on eight high-danger shots. The Maple Leafs went 0 for 8 on their highest-probability chances. A. Stolarz (TOR) gave up 1.96 goals more than expected, well below his workload — a sign of a collapsed defense. D. Hildeby (TOR) looked solid in relief, but the damage was done.

The Bruins' rush attack was lethal: four goals on 34 chances. The Maple Leafs got three on 31 chances — similar rates, different results. Toronto crashed the net effectively, creating seven rebound opportunities and converting zero. That pattern repeated all night.

Fraser Minten's wrist shot from the slot in the third period was the turning point. One goal separated the teams at that moment, and Minten sealed it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 8
BOS
5
TOR
3

Bruins hold off the Maple Leafs

Chances 4.2 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Maple Leafs deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
4.19
TOR
4.65
47% of the chances53%

The board read BOS 5, TOR 3. The chances read BOS 4.2, TOR 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
+0.8
goals above expected
BOS4.19 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
TOR4.65 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Maple Leafs left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:12TORN. RobertsonPP0–1
  2. P1 03:30BOSM. Geekie1–1
  3. P1 03:50BOSV. Arvidsson2–1
  4. P1 13:03TORM. Maccelli2–2
  5. P2 02:15BOSM. EyssimontPP3–2
  6. P2 04:41BOSD. Pastrnak4–2
  7. P2 16:51TORJ. TavaresPP4–3
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
57 shots
5
Final
109 shots
TOR
52 shots
3
BOS attackTOR attack
BOS TOR Goal
57
shots · 5 in
52
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSTOR
2 / 6
1.65 xG
High danger
0 / 8
2.02 xG
3 / 16
1.74 xG
Medium
3 / 18
1.97 xG
0 / 45
0.80 xG
Low
0 / 39
0.66 xG

The Maple Leafs went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
D. Hildeby
+3.2
TOR · 19/20
A
J. Swayman
+1.6
BOS · 30/33
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins hold off the Maple Leafs

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–6
  1. 03:12TORN. Robertsonpower play(M. Domi, M. Rielly)0–1
  2. 03:30BOSM. Geekie(M. Lohrei)1–1
  3. 03:50BOSV. Arvidsson2–1
  4. 13:03TORM. Maccelli(N. Roy, M. Rielly)2–2
2ndshots 14–12
  1. 02:15BOSM. Eyssimontpower play(M. Khusnutdinov, M. Lohrei)3–2
  2. 04:41BOSD. Pastrnak(H. Lindholm, M. Geekie)4–2
  3. 16:51TORJ. Tavarespower play(W. Nylander, O. Ekman-Larsson)4–3
3rdshots 12–15
  1. 16:58BOSF. Minten(M. Kastelic)5–3

score reads BOS–TOR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.19
BOS chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.8
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.028
BOS puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
50.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.19Expected goals4.65
TOR 53% of the chance quality
39Shots on goal33
6High-danger chances8
67All attempts (Corsi)65
Adjusted for score: BOS 47% · TOR 54%
Faceoffs · TOR won39%off59%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
BOS2 / 6 · 1.65 xG
TOR0 / 8 · 2.02 xG
Medium dangermid-range
BOS3 / 16 · 1.74 xG
TOR3 / 18 · 1.97 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
BOS0 / 45 · 0.80 xG
TOR0 / 39 · 0.66 xG

TOR went 0-for-8 from high danger on 2.02 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
BOS
5 G · 4.19 xG · +0.8
TOR
3 G · 4.65 xG · -1.6
0123456

BOS finished +0.8 against expected, TOR -1.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
BOS
WRIST5/34
SNAP0/10
TIP IN0/4
SLAP0/7
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/10
TOR
WRIST2/35
SNAP0/6
TIP IN1/5
SLAP0/2
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/13
BOS
TOR
Off the rush
4 G on 34
3.26 xG
3 G on 31
2.84 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 6
0.42 xG
0 G on 7
0.97 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 5-for-34, TOR 2-for-35. BOS scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Swayman
BOS · 30/33 · .909
+1.6
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/82.0+2.0
Medium3/182.0-1.0
Low0/390.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Hildeby
TOR · 19/20 · .950
+3.2
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/61.6-0.3
Medium3/161.7-1.3
Low0/450.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Stolarz
TOR · 15/19 · .789
+0.2
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/61.6-0.3
Medium3/161.7-1.3
Low0/450.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

109 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
BOS
57 shots
5
Final
109 shots
TOR
52 shots
3
BOS attackTOR attack
BOS TOR Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Rielly
#44 · D · TOR
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 24:37 on ice · -1
M. Lohrei
#6 · D · BOS
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 14:49 on ice · +2
M. Geekie
#39 · C · BOS
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 14:29 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Nov 8
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:02 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.6 goal game with the Maple Leafs at 51% win probability. This is a pick'em.

Boston dominates possession at 49.0% Corsi, which correlates to 47.0% expected goals. Territory and shot creation both favor the Bruins. Toronto musters 46.0% xG% while conceding 45.0% Corsi—a structural disadvantage that forces them to win from smaller windows. Boston's path is volume; Toronto's is efficiency.

The Bruins' underlying metrics warrant caution. A 1.023 PDO means they're outscoring their play; regression is typically next. Toronto's 1.002 sits at equilibrium, which is what earned play looks like.

J. Korpisalo enters on a back-to-back, a variable that shapes the goaltending dimension.

Viktor Arvidsson is Boston's primary offensive vehicle. At 1.04 expected goals per 60 minutes, he's posting 18 goals and 24 assists with 2 high-danger chances and a 13.0% shooting rate—proof of both volume and precision. Tanner Jeannot operates at 0.75 xG/60, lower in creation but sharper in conversion: 6 goals on an 8.3% shooting clip, a sign he's found his spot in the lineup.

Auston Matthews leads Toronto's offense at 1.10 xG/60, the game's highest. He's compiled 17 goals and 13 assists with 1 high-danger chance; the assists suggest his line is functioning. John Tavares anchors at 0.91 xG/60 with 15 goals, 24 assists, 3 high-danger chances, and a 12.4% shooting rate—the reliable secondary option.

Elias Lindholm represents Boston's defensive weakness. Bo Groulx is Toronto's. Both become tactical targets.

The core tension is this: Boston owns the territorial game while Toronto thrives on efficiency. Neither has cracked the code to dominate both. The Leafs can steal this by staying patient and forcing Boston into low-probability attempts. Boston can win by suffocating Toronto into rushed decisions. Both paths hold equal weight in the model's projection, which explains the coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

TOR 51%
51%
TOR
Model favorite
49%
51%
BOS50TOR

TOR by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.6 TOR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →TOR
47.0%46.0%
49.0%45.0%
2.392.24
2.672.67
2.222.09
1.822.52
1.0231.002

BOS holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 1.002) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BOS
6-4-0
-1 GD · 1d rest
TOR
6-3-1
+0 GD · 2d rest
1.023
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.002
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Bruins drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Bruins drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Korpisalo is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
BOS
Expected in goal
J. Korpisalo
back-to-back.909 last start
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

TOR
Expected in goal
A. Stolarz
2 days rest.875 last start
Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
BOS
Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
TOR
Auston Matthews17G 13A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh
John Tavares15G 24A
0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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