Motion-blurred skater in a Anaheim Ducks sweater

Breakdown · ANA at VGK

Ducks steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Final / OTSat, Nov 8

ANAAnaheim Ducks4 VGKVegas Golden Knights3

The verdict · stolen

The Ducks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.23–4.71 and won anyway.

ANA 4 · VGK 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:10 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Anaheim won 4–3 in overtime despite losing the xG battle 4.71–3.23. The Golden Knights controlled 59% of expected goals at 5v5—they should have won.

The Golden Knights dominated possession. They held 57% of shot attempts and 39 shots to Anaheim's 29, but precision and goaltending betrayed them. P. Mrazek (ANA) stopped 36 of 39 shots with a 0.923 save percentage, saving 1.71 goals above expected. A. Schmid (VGK) made 25 of 29 saves at 0.862, underperforming his xG by 0.77. The gap between what each team created and what it scored was the margin of the game.

The Golden Knights stumbled on high-danger chances—0 for 5 on prime scoring opportunities. Anaheim finished 5 for 5. Vegas was lethal on the rush with 2 goals on 34 chances, but Anaheim converted at a higher rate: 3 goals on 27 attempts. Jacob Trouba's backhander from the doorstep at 04:28 of overtime sealed it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Nov 8

ANA

VGK

Ducks steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 3.2 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

ANA

3.23

VGK

4.71

41% of the chances59%

The board read ANA 4, VGK 3. The chances read ANA 3.2, VGK 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

ANA

+0.8

goals above expected

ANA3.23 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK4.71 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Golden Knights left 1.7 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:47VGKB. Howden0–1
P1 15:49ANAF. Vatrano1–1
P2 10:39ANAL. Carlsson2–1
P2 16:50ANAL. Carlsson3–1
P3 03:56VGKP. DorofeyevPP3–2
P3 14:53VGKK. Korczak3–3
OT 04:28ANAJ. Trouba4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

ANA

47 shots

Final

100 shots

VGK

53 shots

ANA VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

ANAVGK

1 / 5

1.01 xG

High danger

0 / 5

1.19 xG

3 / 12

1.34 xG

Medium

3 / 25

2.92 xG

0 / 44

0.88 xG

Low

0 / 44

0.60 xG

The Golden Knights went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

P. Mrazek

+1.7

ANA · 36/39

D-

A. Schmid

−0.8

VGK · 25/29

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Ducks steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–7

05:47VGKB. Howden(W. Karlsson, N. Hanifin)0–1
15:49ANAF. Vatrano(O. Zellweger, J. Trouba)1–1

2ndshots 12–8

10:39ANAL. Carlsson(T. Terry)2–1
16:50ANAL. Carlsson(O. Zellweger)3–1

3rdshots 6–21

03:56VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(J. Eichel)3–2
14:53VGKK. Korczak(I. Barbashev, M. Marner)3–3

OTshots 3–3

04:28ANAJ. Trouba(L. Carlsson)4–3

score reads ANA–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.23

ANA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.8

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.025

ANA puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

45.2%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.23Expected goals4.71

VGK 59% of the chance quality

29Shots on goal39

5High-danger chances5

61All attempts (Corsi)74

Adjusted for score: ANA 44% · VGK 56%

Faceoffs · VGK won74%off35%neu55%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

ANA1 / 5 · 1.01 xG

VGK0 / 5 · 1.19 xG

Medium dangermid-range

ANA3 / 12 · 1.34 xG

VGK3 / 25 · 2.92 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

ANA0 / 44 · 0.88 xG

VGK0 / 44 · 0.60 xG

ANA went 3-for-12 from medium danger on 1.34 expected goals — 1.7 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

ANA

4 G · 3.23 xG · +0.8

VGK

3 G · 4.71 xG · -1.7

0123456

ANA finished +0.8 against expected, VGK -1.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

ANA

WRIST0/19

SNAP1/11

TIP IN1/5

BACKHAND2/5

SLAP0/4

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/14

VGK

WRIST0/24

SNAP3/13

TIP IN0/5

BACKHAND0/5

SLAP0/5

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/21

ANA

VGK

Off the rush

3 G on 27

1.96 xG

2 G on 34

3.58 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 6

0.68 xG

0 G on 4

0.30 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: ANA went 0-for-19, VGK 0-for-24. ANA scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

P. Mrazek

ANA · 36/39 · .923

+1.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.2+1.2

Medium3/252.9-0.1

Low0/440.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Schmid

VGK · 25/29 · .862

-0.8

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.0+0.0

Medium3/121.3-1.7

Low0/440.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

100 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

ANA

47 shots

Final

100 shots

VGK

53 shots

ANA VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — ANA left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

L. Carlsson

#91 · C · ANA

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 21:42 on ice · +2

J. Trouba

#65 · D · ANA

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 26:36 on ice · +3

O. Zellweger

#51 · D · ANA

0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 23:31 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Nov 8

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:09 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal game with Vegas at 54% win probability. That's as close to even as sports gets.

The underlying numbers explain the tightness. Anaheim owns 52.0% expected goals share at 5v5; Vegas owns 54.0%—a meaningful but not decisive separation in chance creation. Corsi is a perfect tie at 52.0% for both. Both teams are running cold on PDO (Anaheim at 0.981, Vegas at 0.983), meaning both are due for regression toward average. In a game this close, that swing matters.

Vegas's edge tilts on depth. Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5 goals, 17 assists) creates chances consistently even in a down season; Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60) has just 3 goals despite above-average shot quality, a drought waiting to snap. Anaheim's young wings work the other side. Beckett Sennecke (1.03 xG/60, 20 goals, 13.5% shooting) creates and capitalizes at equal rates. Cutter Gauthier (0.99 xG/60, 25 goals, 12.9% shooting) does the same at higher volume.

The variable is goaltending. Both C. Lindbom and L. Dostal are on back-to-backs, meaning tired starters or unproven backups may see action.

A 54% lean isn't a forecast—it's a hedge. This is as close as the model gets to a coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 54%

54%

VGK

Model favorite

46%

54%

ANA50VGK

VGK by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score ANA 2.5–2.7 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

ANA← edge

edge →VGK

52.0%54.0%

52.0%52.0%

2.802.52

2.592.11

2.092.12

2.322.10

0.9810.983

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.981 vs 0.983) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

ANA

7-2-1

+13 GD · 1d rest

VGK

6-3-1

+6 GD · 1d rest

0.981

ANA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

C. Lindbom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
L. Dostal is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

ANA

Expected in goal

L. Dostal

back-to-back.808 last start

Backup Lukas Dostal · -2.9 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Lindbom

back-to-back.808 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

ANA

Beckett Sennecke20G 19A

1.03 xG/60 · 8 HD · 13.5% sh

Cutter Gauthier25G 16A

0.99 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.9% sh

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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