The Blackhawks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.49–6.18 and won anyway.
The Blackhawks demolished the Red Wings 5–1 in a game where the underlying metrics suggest Detroit should have won decisively. The Red Wings owned 71% of expected goals at 6.18–2.49 — and still walked away with a loss. This was theft by execution.
Detroit controlled this game. They posted 46 shot attempts to Chicago's 20, created 13 high-danger chances to Chicago's 4, and generated more quality than the scoreboard could explain. At 5v5, the Red Wings' advantage was even starker: 70% of shot attempts and 71% of expected goals. By every measure of play, they were the better team.
But metrics don't win games. Goals do.
A. Soderblom stood in the crease and made winning a margin impossible. He finished 45 for 46, a 0.978 save percentage that translated to stopping 5.18 goals above expected — a performance so far beyond the norm it erased Detroit's entire edge. J. Gibson, by contrast, yielded 1.51 goals more than expected, turning what should have been competitive into a rout.
Chicago's finishing compounded the problem. They converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances (50%) and rattled 4 goals on 15 rush attempts. A clinical performance in the slots they did create. It's the inverse of Detroit's night: plenty of looks, zero conversion.
Oliver Moore's slap shot from the doorstep in the third period crystallized the tilt. By that point, Chicago's goaltending and shot selection had already settled the issue.
