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← Tue, Nov 11 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at SEA

Blue Jackets edge the Kraken in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Nov 11
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2SEASeattle Kraken1
The verdict · earned

The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 2 · SEA 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:47 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

M. Murray produced the superior goaltending: 33 saves on 34 shots (0.971 SV%, +2.98 above expected) versus J. Greaves' 22 of 23 (0.957 SV%, +2.01 above expected). By the expected goals model, Murray should have stolen a win. Yet Seattle lost 2-1, decided by Charlie Coyle's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout.

Columbus controlled 5v5 expected goals at 57% (3.98–3.01), a margin larger than shot volume alone suggested. Seattle held just 40% of shot attempts (23–34), meaning the Kraken were outshot by volume and quality. On high-danger chances, Columbus led 4–3. Neither team converted rebound opportunities: Seattle generated 5, Columbus 3, both wasting second chances.

M. Murray's +2.98 above expected—nearly a goal's worth of excellence—meant Seattle created the quality to steal this game. They didn't. The expected goals framework aligned with Columbus's precision; the shootout decided what regulation play never could. In sudden death, one shot mattered more than the underlying metrics.

Three Stars

  • #19 A. Fantilli (CBJ) — 1G in 22:54
  • #86 K. Marchenko (CBJ) — 1A in 21:19
  • #23 S. Monahan (CBJ) — 1A in 21:11
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Nov 11
CBJ
2
SEA
1

Blue Jackets edge the Kraken in a shootout

Chances 4.0 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
3.98
SEA
3.01
57% of the chances43%

The board read CBJ 2, SEA 1. The chances read CBJ 4.0, SEA 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
−2.0
goals above expected
CBJ3.98 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
SEA3.01 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kraken left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 16:43SEAR. Winterton0–1
  2. P2 18:22CBJA. FantilliPP1–1
  3. SO 00:00CBJK. MarchenkoPP1–1
  4. SO 00:00SEAE. TolvanenPP1–1
  5. SO 00:00CBJC. CoylePP1–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
57 shots
3
Final
102 shots
SEA
45 shots
2
CBJ attackSEA attack
CBJ SEA Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

57
shots · 3 in
45
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJSEA
0 / 4
0.94 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.75 xG
1 / 18
2.21 xG
Medium
1 / 16
1.69 xG
0 / 44
0.83 xG
Low
0 / 43
0.56 xG

The Kraken went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
M. Murray
+3.0
SEA · 33/34
A
J. Greaves
+2.0
CBJ · 22/23
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets edge the Kraken in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–9
  1. 16:43SEAR. Winterton(B. Meyers, J. Oleksiak)0–1
2ndshots 11–8
  1. 18:22CBJA. Fantillipower play(K. Marchenko, S. Monahan)1–1
3rdshots 11–5no goals
    OTshots 1–1no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00CBJK. Marchenkopower play1–1
      2. 00:00SEAE. Tolvanenpower play1–1
      3. 00:00CBJC. Coylepower play1–1

      score reads CBJ–SEA

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      3.98
      CBJ chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −2.0
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      0.999
      CBJ puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      51.6%
      Shot attempts
      Over half — they had the puck more
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      3.98Expected goals3.01
      CBJ 57% of the chance quality
      34Shots on goal23
      4High-danger chances3
      66All attempts (Corsi)62
      Adjusted for score: CBJ 53% · SEA 47%
      Faceoffs · SEA won59%off36%neu48%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      CBJ0 / 4 · 0.94 xG
      SEA0 / 3 · 0.75 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      CBJ1 / 18 · 2.21 xG
      SEA1 / 16 · 1.69 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      CBJ0 / 44 · 0.83 xG
      SEA0 / 43 · 0.56 xG

      CBJ went 1-for-18 from medium danger on 2.21 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      CBJ
      2 G · 3.98 xG · -2.0
      SEA
      1 G · 3.01 xG · -2.0
      012345

      CBJ finished -2.0 against expected, SEA -2.0.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      CBJ
      WRIST0/25
      SNAP1/10
      TIP IN0/8
      BACKHAND0/3
      SLAP0/5
      BAT0/2
      OTHER0/13
      SEA
      WRIST0/22
      SNAP1/6
      TIP IN0/6
      BACKHAND0/5
      SLAP0/2
      BAT0/0
      OTHER0/21
      CBJ
      SEA
      Off the rush
      0 G on 31
      2.40 xG
      1 G on 24
      1.93 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 3
      0.72 xG
      0 G on 5
      0.78 xG

      Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 0-for-25, SEA 0-for-22.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Greaves
      CBJ · 22/23 · .957
      +2.0
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/30.8+0.8
      Medium1/161.7+0.7
      Low0/430.6+0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      M. Murray
      SEA · 33/34 · .971
      +3.0
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/40.9+0.9
      Medium1/182.2+1.2
      Low0/440.8+0.8

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      102 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      CBJ
      57 shots
      3
      Final
      102 shots
      SEA
      45 shots
      2
      CBJ attackSEA attack
      CBJ SEA Goal

      Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

      Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      A. Fantilli
      #19 · C · CBJ
      1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 22:54 on ice
      K. Marchenko
      #86 · R · CBJ
      0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:19 on ice · -1
      S. Monahan
      #23 · C · CBJ
      0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 21:11 on ice · -1
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Tue, Nov 11
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:34 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The numbers say this is essentially a draw. The model projects a 2.6-2.4 Blue Jackets win with Columbus at 53% win probability—as close to an even matchup as you'll find.

      Columbus has the underlying advantage. The Blue Jackets control shot quality at 52.0% xG, compared to 46.0% for Seattle, and dominate territorial play with 51.0% Corsi. They impose their structure and generate volume in the right places. Seattle absorbs that dominance without collapsing, but the deficit matters when games are decided by a goal or two.

      Seattle's recent results suggest the model might be underweighting momentum. The Kraken sit at minus-7 goal differential over their last ten games—genuinely underwater in a small sample that often predicts regression or collapse. That's the kind of stretch that can compound.

      The key decision point: M. Murray is on a back-to-back. If Seattle starts a backup, Columbus's shot-quality edge becomes a tangible advantage. If Murray plays tired, expect Seattle to tighten defensively and lean on Chandler Stephenson to absorb punishment.

      Columbus counters with its own vulnerability. Conor Garland is the Blue Jackets' defensive weak link, which Seattle can exploit if Berkly Catton finds space in transition.

      Players to Watch

      Columbus: Boone Jenner (11G 21A, 0.98 xG/60, 9.6% shooting) remains the engine; Mathieu Olivier (12G 9A, 0.89 xG/60, 13.3% shooting) provides secondary punch.

      Seattle: Shane Wright (8G 10A, 0.77 xG/60, 10.4% shooting, 4 high-danger goals) and Berkly Catton (6G 8A, 0.68 xG/60, 8.8% shooting, 5 high-danger goals) carry the scoring load.

      The coin flip reflects reality: Columbus has a structural advantage Seattle can overcome if goaltending holds. Watch the opening stretch to see if the model's thin edge materializes or Seattle steals a game it has no business winning.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      CBJ 53%
      53%
      CBJ
      Model favorite
      53%
      47%
      CBJ50SEA

      CBJ by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.4 SEA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      CBJ← edge
      edge →SEA
      52.0%46.0%
      51.0%45.0%
      2.632.13
      2.432.51
      2.121.87
      1.981.95
      1.0031.011

      CBJ holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      CBJ
      6-4-0
      +1 GD · 2d rest
      SEA
      4-4-2
      -7 GD · 1d rest
      1.003
      CBJ PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      1.011
      SEA PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Where the edges live
      • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
      • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
      Things to watch
      • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
      • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
      • M. Murray is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • The Kraken are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      CBJ
      Expected in goal
      E. Merzlikins
      2 days rest.833 last start
      Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      SEA
      Expected in goal
      M. Murray
      back-to-back.920 last start
      Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      CBJ
      Boone Jenner11G 21A
      0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
      Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
      0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
      SEA
      Shane Wright8G 10A
      0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
      Berkly Catton6G 8A
      0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page