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← Wed, Nov 12 · the slate
Breakdown · NJD at CHI

Devils edge the Blackhawks in overtime

Final / OTWed, Nov 12
NJDNew Jersey Devils4CHIChicago Blackhawks3
The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 4 · CHI 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:42 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils won despite an embarrassment of riches they couldn't cash: 6 high-danger chances, 0 conversions. Yet New Jersey still beat Chicago 4–3 in overtime, suggesting efficiency elsewhere mattered more than volume in the slot.

The expected goals backed the result. The Devils controlled 58% of 5v5 xG (3.93 to 2.86), indicating genuine superiority in shot quality.

But Chicago kept the volume battle competitive. The Blackhawks held 35% of shot attempts—20 to 37—a workable deficit that meant the game stayed physical and contested. They were also sharp off the rush: 3 goals on 24 chances, an efficiency that nearly carried them through. New Jersey scored 3 on the rush as well, but needed 32 attempts to get there.

Simon Nemec's wrist shot from the high slot ended it at 3:28 of overtime.

Goaltending wasn't decisive. S. Knight was sensational: 33 saves on 37 shots, a 0.892 save percentage. J. Markstrom was solid: 17 for 20, 0.850. Knight was better, and yet New Jersey still took the 2 points. The Devils' precision was the story—they scored when it mattered most, in overtime, after squandering the volume advantage they'd built.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Nov 12
NJD
4
CHI
3

Devils edge the Blackhawks in overtime

Chances 3.9 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NJD
3.93
CHI
2.86
58% of the chances42%

The board read NJD 4, CHI 3. The chances read NJD 3.9, CHI 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
+0.1
goals above expected
NJD3.93 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
CHI2.86 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 18:35CHIC. BedardPP0–1
  2. P2 19:45NJDS. Nemec1–1
  3. P3 03:05CHIL. Slaggert1–2
  4. P3 10:13NJDD. Mercer2–2
  5. P3 13:34CHIS. Lafferty2–3
  6. P3 16:14NJDS. Nemec3–3
  7. OT 03:28NJDS. Nemec4–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NJD
56 shots
4
Final
90 shots
CHI
34 shots
3
NJD attackCHI attack
NJD CHI Goal
56
shots · 4 in
34
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NJDCHI
0 / 6
1.41 xG
High danger
1 / 5
1.13 xG
3 / 14
1.72 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.32 xG
1 / 52
0.80 xG
Low
1 / 26
0.41 xG

High-danger looks: NJD 0 of 6, CHI 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
S. Knight
−0.1
CHI · 33/37
C
J. Markstrom
−0.1
NJD · 17/20
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils edge the Blackhawks in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–12
  1. 18:35CHIC. Bedardpower play(T. Teravainen, T. Bertuzzi)0–1
2ndshots 14–3
  1. 19:45NJDS. Nemec(N. Hischier, T. Meier)1–1
3rdshots 9–5
  1. 03:05CHIL. Slaggert(L. Crevier, N. Foligno)1–2
  2. 10:13NJDD. Mercer(J. Hughes, A. Gritsyuk)2–2
  3. 13:34CHIS. Lafferty(N. Foligno, L. Crevier)2–3
  4. 16:14NJDS. Nemec(S. Noesen, J. Hughes)3–3
OTshots 4–0
  1. 03:28NJDS. Nemec(J. Markstrom, L. Hughes)4–3

score reads NJD–CHI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.93
NJD chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.1
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
0.986
NJD puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
62.6%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.93Expected goals2.86
NJD 58% of the chance quality
37Shots on goal20
6High-danger chances5
72All attempts (Corsi)43
Adjusted for score: NJD 64% · CHI 36%
Faceoffs · CHI won38%off56%neu25%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NJD0 / 6 · 1.41 xG
CHI1 / 5 · 1.13 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NJD3 / 14 · 1.72 xG
CHI1 / 12 · 1.32 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NJD1 / 52 · 0.80 xG
CHI1 / 26 · 0.41 xG

NJD went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.41 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NJD
4 G · 3.93 xG · +0.1
CHI
3 G · 2.86 xG · +0.1
012345

NJD finished +0.1 against expected, CHI +0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NJD
WRIST2/41
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND1/4
SNAP0/1
SLAP1/4
DEFLECTED0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/16
CHI
WRIST0/16
TIP IN1/5
BACKHAND1/3
SNAP1/6
SLAP0/2
DEFLECTED0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/9
NJD
CHI
Off the rush
3 G on 32
3.07 xG
3 G on 24
2.28 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 5
0.35 xG
0 G on 1
0.04 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 2-for-41, CHI 0-for-16. NJD scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Markstrom
NJD · 17/20 · .850
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/51.1+0.1
Medium1/121.3+0.3
Low1/260.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Knight
CHI · 33/37 · .892
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/61.4+1.4
Medium3/141.7-1.3
Low1/520.8-0.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

90 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NJD
56 shots
4
Final
90 shots
CHI
34 shots
3
NJD attackCHI attack
NJD CHI Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, CHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
S. Nemec
#17 · D · NJD
3 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 26:27 on ice · +4
J. Hughes
#86 · C · NJD
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 23:29 on ice · +3
L. Crevier
#46 · D · CHI
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 18:00 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Nov 12
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:40 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.7–2.5 game with the Devils at 54% win probability. You're looking at the closest thing to a pick'em all season.

The Devils own the underlying play. They run 50.0% xG at 5v5 and 51.0% Corsi, exerting real territorial control. The Blackhawks sit at 42.0% xG and 46.0% Corsi—respectable for a visitor, but visibly in the weaker position. New Jersey should outshoot Chicago over 60 minutes.

What keeps this tight is process versus results. The Devils' PDO of 0.971 signals they're running cold—a gap from average built to close. The Blackhawks' 0.996 PDO is exactly league average, which means their record is tracking their underlying skill. That variance gap tightens the projection.

The Blackhawks land the rest advantage: three days to New Jersey's one. It's not decisive, but it's real.

Goaltending matters here. J. Markstrom plays on a back-to-back—watch for a backup start or a starter running on empty. A fresh blade in the crease flips the variance calc considerably.

New Jersey's attack rests on two wings operating at different altitudes. Timo Meier runs 1.08 xG/60 with 13 goals and 15 assists; he's posted 3 high-danger goals at a 6.7% shooting rate, slightly cool. Jack Hughes sits at 0.88 xG/60, 18 goals, 17 assists, and has buried 1 high-danger goal at an 11.5% clip—hot enough to matter. Chicago counters with Tyler Bertuzzi (0.85 xG/60, 20 goals, 15 assists, 7 high-danger goals, 18.0% shooting) and Connor Bedard (0.82 xG/60, 17 goals, 27 assists, 5 high-danger goals, 11.8% shooting). Bertuzzi is the more efficient finisher in this pairing. Bedard has produced 27 assists, a reliable playmaking element for Chicago's offense.

Where each team bleeds is predictable. New Jersey's back line has Johnathan Kovacevic as a weak link. Chicago's is Anton Frondell. Both are defensive liabilities that a sharp counterattack can exploit.

This game has skill distributed evenly enough that the outcome genuinely could go either way. Take 54% Devils if you trust underlying process. Take the Blackhawks if you believe one day of rest and Markstrom's potential fatigue matter more than 8 percentage points of xG difference.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NJD 54%
54%
NJD
Model favorite
54%
46%
NJD50CHI

NJD by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NJD 2.7–2.5 CHI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →CHI
50.0%42.0%
51.0%46.0%
2.452.17
2.502.94
1.661.84
2.232.41
0.9710.996

NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 0.996) says CHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NJD
6-3-1
+0 GD · 1d rest
CHI
6-3-1
+9 GD · 3d rest
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.996
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
  • The Devils drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
  • The Devils drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Blackhawks have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NJD
Expected in goal
J. Markstrom
back-to-back.875 last start
Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CHI
Expected in goal
A. Soderblom
3 days rest.978 last start
Backup Spencer Knight · +10.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi20G 15A
0.85 xG/60 · 7 HD · 18.0% sh
Connor Bedard17G 27A
0.82 xG/60 · 5 HD · 11.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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