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Breakdown · DAL at MTL

Stars shut out the Canadiens, 7-0

FinalThu, Nov 13
DALDallas Stars7MTLMontreal Canadiens0
The verdict · stolen

The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.18–3.19 and won anyway.

DAL 7 · MTL 0
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:49 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas stole a 7-0 win from Montreal by dominating conversion while the Canadiens dominated the ice. Montreal controlled 59% of expected goals (3.19 vs 2.18) and 56% of shot attempts, yet departed with zero. The Stars' shooting was not just lucky—it was extreme: they finished 4.82 goals above expected on only 2.18 xG. Montreal did the inverse, underperforming their xG by 3.19.

C. DeSmith (DAL) saved 3.19 goals above expected, which accounts for most of the margin. S. Montembeault (MTL) and J. Dobes (MTL) combined to underperform by 4.82, meaning Montreal's goaltending absorbed the full gap. Montembeault surrendered 1.31 goals above expected in limited action; Dobes gave up 3.51 in his share.

The Canadiens generated the better chances—three high-danger opportunities to Dallas's two, plus five rebound chances that created nothing. Dallas, by contrast, was lethal on transition: seven goals on twenty rush chances. Montreal pressed hard enough to create secondary scoring opportunities but could not finish. Dallas's efficiency on the rush made the difference.

This was a goaltending and execution story hiding behind a blowout. Montreal had the puck and the chances. Dallas had the conversions.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 13
DAL
7
MTL
0

Stars shut out the Canadiens, 7-0

Chances 2.2 – 3.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Canadiens deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
DAL
2.18
MTL
3.19
41% of the chances59%

The board read DAL 7, MTL 0. The chances read DAL 2.2, MTL 3.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
+4.8
goals above expected
DAL2.18 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored
MTL3.19 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Stars scored 4.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 14:21DALW. JohnstonPP1–0
  2. P2 03:50DALE. Lindell2–0
  3. P2 07:10DALT. Seguin3–0
  4. P2 15:10DALJ. Robertson4–0
  5. P2 16:49DALJ. Robertson5–0
  6. P3 02:01DALA. Petrovic6–0
  7. P3 14:40DALC. Blackwell7–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DAL
28 shots
7
Final
67 shots
MTL
39 shots
0
DAL attackMTL attack
DAL MTL Goal
28
shots · 7 in
39
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DALMTL
1 / 2
0.44 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.79 xG
5 / 13
1.35 xG
Medium
0 / 20
2.12 xG
1 / 28
0.40 xG
Low
0 / 29
0.28 xG

The Canadiens went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
C. DeSmith
+3.2
DAL · 24/24
C
S. Montembeault
+0.2
MTL · 4/6
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars shut out the Canadiens, 7-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–14
  1. 14:21DALW. Johnstonpower play(R. Hintz, M. Rantanen)1–0
2ndshots 8–3
  1. 03:50DALE. Lindell(M. Heiskanen, R. Faksa)2–0
  2. 07:10DALT. Seguin(J. Robertson, L. Bichsel)3–0
  3. 15:10DALJ. Robertson(T. Harley, M. Rantanen)4–0
  4. 16:49DALJ. Robertson(J. Hryckowian, M. Bourque)5–0
3rdshots 6–7
  1. 02:01DALA. Petrovic(R. Faksa, C. Blackwell)6–0
  2. 14:40DALC. Blackwell(R. Faksa, I. Lyubushkin)7–0

score reads DAL–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.18
DAL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+4.8
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.163
DAL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
45.3%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.18Expected goals3.19
MTL 59% of the chance quality
19Shots on goal24
2High-danger chances3
43All attempts (Corsi)52
Adjusted for score: DAL 40% · MTL 60%
Faceoffs · MTL won33%off46%neu32%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
DAL1 / 2 · 0.44 xG
MTL0 / 3 · 0.79 xG
Medium dangermid-range
DAL5 / 13 · 1.35 xG
MTL0 / 20 · 2.12 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
DAL1 / 28 · 0.40 xG
MTL0 / 29 · 0.28 xG

DAL went 5-for-13 from medium danger on 1.35 expected goals — 3.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
DAL
7 G · 2.18 xG · +4.8
MTL
0 G · 3.19 xG · -3.2
012345678

DAL finished +4.8 against expected, MTL -3.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
DAL
SNAP5/20
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND1/4
SLAP0/0
WRIST0/0
BAT1/1
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/15
MTL
SNAP0/26
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/2
SLAP0/4
WRIST0/2
BAT0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/13
DAL
MTL
Off the rush
7 G on 20
1.85 xG
0 G on 25
2.25 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.11 xG
0 G on 5
0.51 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: DAL went 5-for-20, MTL 0-for-26. DAL scored 7 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. DeSmith
DAL · 24/24 · 1.000
+3.2
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.8+0.8
Medium0/202.1+2.1
Low0/290.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Montembeault
MTL · 4/6 · .667
+0.2
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/20.4-0.6
Medium5/131.4-3.6
Low1/280.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Dobes
MTL · 8/13 · .615
-2.8
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/20.4-0.6
Medium5/131.4-3.6
Low1/280.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

67 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
DAL
28 shots
7
Final
67 shots
MTL
39 shots
0
DAL attackMTL attack
DAL MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Robertson
#21 · L · DAL
2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · 17:59 on ice · +3
R. Faksa
#12 · C · DAL
0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 11:31 on ice · +3
M. Rantanen
#96 · R · DAL
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 15:33 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Nov 13
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:48 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas and Montreal project to identical outcomes: the model estimates a 2.5-2.5 finish with both teams at 50% win probability. This is as close to a true pick'em as hockey models produce.

The Stars own the underlying play. Dallas generated 51.0% 5v5 expected goals to Montreal's 48.0%, a modest but consistent edge that usually separates teams over time.

Both rosters are running hot on finishing luck. Dallas sits at 1.024 PDO—meaning shots are converting above predicted rates—while Montreal's 1.018 suggests similar inflation. Each will regress, but neither has strayed far enough to constitute extreme risk.

Goaltending injects chaos: S. Montembeault and J. Oettinger both play on the second night of back-to-backs. Either team might deploy a backup or field a fatigued starter, an edge that could swing the result.

The offensive talent favors neither convincingly. Dallas leans on Jason Robertson, who carries 0.96 xG/60 and owns 25G 21A with 2 high-danger goals on a 12.4% shooting rate. Montreal counters with Cole Caufield, generating 0.97 xG/60 across 33G 16A and 1 high-danger goal while converting at 20.0%—elevated luck that will normalize. Michael Bunting (0.83 xG/60, 8G 14A, 7.6% shooting) drives Dallas's secondary scoring, while Oliver Kapanen does the same for Montreal at 0.83 xG/60 (19G 12A, 4 high-danger goals, 17.8% shooting).

Dallas's Tyler Myers and Montreal's Mike Matheson represent defensive liabilities. Possession numbers complicate the picture: Montreal edges Dallas 49.0% Corsi to 47.0%, inverting the expected-goals advantage and suggesting the Canadiens generate momentum even as the Stars finish cleaner.

The 50% projection reflects genuine uncertainty. Neither team has separated enough for confident advantage. Dallas controls shot quality; Montreal controls puck possession. With both goalies facing fatigue and both rosters overperforming finishable metrics, the winner emerges from whichever team's luck regresses less violently.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DAL 50%
50%
DAL
Model favorite
50%
50%
DAL50MTL

DAL by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 2.5–2.5 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →MTL
51.0%48.0%
47.0%49.0%
2.362.41
2.292.62
2.072.24
1.681.96
1.0241.018

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.024 vs 1.018) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
DAL
7-1-2
+3 GD · 1d rest
MTL
6-2-2
+3 GD · 1d rest
1.024
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • S. Montembeault is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Oettinger is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
DAL
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
back-to-back.931 last start
Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL
Expected in goal
S. Montembeault
back-to-back.840 last start
Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
DAL
Jason Robertson25G 21A
0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
Michael Bunting8G 14A
0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 16A
0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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