Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · NYI at VGK

Islanders steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Final / OTThu, Nov 13

NYINew York Islanders4 VGKVegas Golden Knights3

The verdict · stolen

The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.92–5.73 and won anyway.

NYI 4 · VGK 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:55 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

New York's 4–3 overtime win was built against the run of play: the Islanders won despite a 5.73–3.92 expected-goals deficit, a 59–41 split decisively favoring Vegas. This was a heist.

I. Sorokin stole it. The Islanders goalie saved 2.73 goals above expected on 26 of 29 shots (0.897 SV%), turning what should have been a Vegas blowout into a fight to the wire. Vegas underperformed its own xG by 2.73, squandering the dominant quality it generated.

The Golden Knights controlled the game. They out-shot New York 29–24 and out-chanced them 14–7 on high-danger opportunities. Vegas created 9 rebound chances and converted one—they were crashing the net effectively. A. Schmid made 20 of 24 saves (0.833 SV%), but the problem wasn't his save percentage; it was Vegas's inability to convert its chances at a normal rate.

New York's path to victory defied logic. The Islanders scored 4 goals from low-danger spots, a mark that doesn't sustain. They went 0 for 7 on high-danger chances and won anyway—only because I. Sorokin was exceptional (93% save rate on 14 high-danger shots). Both teams thrived off the rush: Vegas scored 2 on 30 attempts; New York scored 3 on 31.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau ended it at 03:02 of overtime with a snap shot from the top of the circles, the kind of opportune finish that summarized New York's night: right place, right moment, and the goaltender beaten.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Nov 13

NYI

VGK

Islanders steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 3.9 – 5.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

3.92

VGK

5.73

41% of the chances59%

The board read NYI 4, VGK 3. The chances read NYI 3.9, VGK 5.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+0.1

goals above expected

NYI3.92 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK5.73 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Golden Knights left 2.7 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 14:03NYIE. Heineman1–0
P1 17:59NYIM. SchaeferPP2–0
P2 18:56VGKS. Theodore2–1
P3 08:23VGKT. HertlPP2–2
P3 10:45VGKR. Smith2–3
P3 17:23NYIM. BarzalPP3–3
OT 03:02NYIJ. PageauSH4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

42 shots

Final

91 shots

VGK

49 shots

NYI VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYIVGK

0 / 7

1.66 xG

High danger

1 / 14

3.28 xG

0 / 16

1.73 xG

Medium

1 / 18

2.08 xG

4 / 32

0.52 xG

Low

1 / 31

0.37 xG

High-danger looks: NYI 0 of 7, VGK 1 of 14.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Sorokin

+2.7

NYI · 26/29

A. Schmid

−0.1

VGK · 20/24

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–10

14:03NYIE. Heineman(B. Horvat, T. DeAngelo)1–0
17:59NYIM. Schaeferpower play(J. Drouin, B. Horvat)2–0

2ndshots 10–8

18:56VGKS. Theodore(K. Kolesar)2–1

3rdshots 5–8

08:23VGKT. Hertlpower play(J. Lauzon, J. Eichel)2–2
10:45VGKR. Smith(B. Saad, B. Howden)2–3
17:23NYIM. Barzalpower play(M. Schaefer, J. Drouin)3–3

OTshots 3–3

03:02NYIJ. Pageaushorthanded4–3

score reads NYI–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.92

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.025

NYI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.6%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.92Expected goals5.73

VGK 59% of the chance quality

24Shots on goal29

7High-danger chances14

55All attempts (Corsi)63

Adjusted for score: NYI 44% · VGK 56%

Faceoffs · VGK won41%off38%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI0 / 7 · 1.66 xG

VGK1 / 14 · 3.28 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI0 / 16 · 1.73 xG

VGK1 / 18 · 2.08 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI4 / 32 · 0.52 xG

VGK1 / 31 · 0.37 xG

NYI went 4-for-32 from low danger on 0.52 expected goals — 3.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

4 G · 3.92 xG · +0.1

VGK

3 G · 5.73 xG · -2.7

01234567

NYI finished +0.1 against expected, VGK -2.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

WRIST0/21

SNAP3/10

TIP IN0/6

SLAP1/4

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/13

VGK

WRIST2/29

SNAP1/11

TIP IN0/3

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/14

NYI

VGK

Off the rush

3 G on 31

3.32 xG

2 G on 30

3.53 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.34 xG

1 G on 9

1.82 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 0-for-21, VGK 2-for-29. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 26/29 · .897

+2.7

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/143.3+2.3

Medium1/182.1+1.1

Low1/310.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Schmid

VGK · 20/24 · .833

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/71.7+1.7

Medium0/161.7+1.7

Low4/320.5-3.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

91 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

42 shots

Final

91 shots

VGK

49 shots

NYI VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 25:59 on ice

B. Horvat

#14 · C · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:19 on ice

J. Drouin

#29 · L · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 21:10 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Nov 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:54 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.3–2.7 goal Golden Knights victory with Vegas at 57% win probability. The edge stems from underlying dominance and regression tailwinds.

Vegas owns the underlying play. The Golden Knights generate 54.0% expected goals at 5v5 versus the Islanders' 48.0%, and control territorial momentum at 52.0% Corsi. This is not a marginal advantage—Vegas will spend the night pinning New York in their defensive zone, and the Islanders' inability to establish offensive rhythm compounds the problem.

The deeper advantage lies in PDO. Vegas runs 0.983, well below league neutral, while New York sits at 0.993. Translation: the Golden Knights are underperforming their chances through a combination of finishing variance and bounces. Neutral PDO would sharpen their expected-goals edge into something decisive. The Islanders have no such buffer; they're already trending toward their underlying luck.

Anders Lee is the Islanders' offensive engine, generating 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes with 9 goals and 2 high-danger chances. His 6.4% shooting rate is sustainable for a high-volume threat but leaves room for downward regression. Bo Horvat wields a more dangerous shooting hand: 12.8% on 0.87 xG/60. That rate rarely holds; his 18 goals reflect finishing outperformance on modest volume. Neutralizing Lee is the priority; Horvat's output self-corrects if territorial control tilts toward Vegas, which the underlying numbers predict it will.

For Vegas, Brandon Saad is marked inactive, removing a 0.91 xG/60 weapon. Tomas Hertl takes on expanded opportunity at 0.88 xG/60 but is running cold at 4.3% shooting on 5 goals—another regression tailwind for the Golden Knights.

New York's defensive architecture features Alexander Romanov as the structural weakness, while Vegas identifies Rasmus Andersson in that role. Neither team generates meaningful scoring off high-danger chances or rebounds, making territorial control and volume the decisive factors. This is a possession game, and Vegas projects to own it. The model's lean on the Golden Knights stands.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 57%

57%

VGK

Model favorite

43%

57%

NYI50VGK

VGK by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYI 2.3–2.7 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →VGK

48.0%54.0%

49.0%52.0%

2.482.52

2.692.11

1.782.12

1.942.10

0.9930.983

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.983) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

5-3-2

+2 GD · 2d rest

VGK

4-4-2

+1 GD · 2d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.943 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Lindbom

2 days rest.850 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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