The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.05–2.59 and won anyway.
The Kraken beat the Sharks 4-1, but the expected-goals model disagreed: San Jose held a 3.05–2.59 edge, yet Seattle won by three. This wasn't close-call variance—it was a goaltending blowout masked by the scoreboard.
The underlying play tilted narrow. Seattle controlled 47% of shot attempts and generated higher-quality chances (0.060 xG per shot vs. San Jose's 0.041). On high-danger chances, the Sharks dominated 5–2—they had the better looks. But they scored on zero of them.
P. Grubauer made that irrelevant. He stopped 19 of 19 shots and ran +2.23 against expected goals, the kind of performance that makes advanced stats look foolish. M. Murray backed him up with a save on 100% of five high-danger chances and a +2.0 xG performance. Seattle didn't just limit chances; it converted low-danger opportunities into goals and denied San Jose theirs.
The Sharks generated rebounds (3 created, 0 converted) and had quality at the net. They underperformed their xG by 2.05—wasted chances were the story. Seattle, meanwhile, was lethal off the rush: three goals on 24 rush attempts. That's an efficiency gap the Sharks couldn't overcome.
The turning point came when Jaden Schwartz's wrist shot from the wing (P3, 16:31) shifted momentum, though by then the Kraken had already established goaltending control.
