The Maple Leafs stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.28–2.38 and won anyway.
The Maple Leafs won 3–2 despite a decisive xG disadvantage: St. Louis dominated with 3.28 expected goals to Toronto's 2.38, yet Toronto scored the last goal.
The Blues controlled 58% of expected goals at 5v5 — a structural advantage the Leafs simply overpowered. Toronto held 49% of shot attempts (29–30 on goal) while trailing badly in high-danger chances (2–3). This was a heist.
How? Superior goaltending and ruthless finishing. J. Woll stopped 28 of 29 shots (0.966 SV%), gaining 2.28 goals above expected — a performance that stole the game. J. Binnington for St. Louis made 26 saves on 29 shots (0.897 SV%), underperforming his expected save percentage by 0.62 goals.
The turning point arrived in overtime: William Nylander's wrist shot from the doorstep at 04:06. A moment that summed up Toronto's night — clinical execution over sustained control.
Both teams found success on the rush, though inefficiently. Toronto scored 2 goals on 20 rush chances; St. Louis matched that output on 32 rush chances, suggesting neither team converted their transition chances at an exceptional rate. The Blues crashed the net effectively, generating 4 rebound opportunities but converting none.
The Leafs' win hinges entirely on Woll's excellence. He was, statistically, the best player on the ice. O. Ekman-Larsson (1A, 24:37) and M. Rielly (1A, 24:13) contributed on the scoresheet; J. Tavares (1A, 23:43) was present but not dominant. Three different Leafs assisted, spreading credit across a lineup that succeeded despite being outplayed.
St. Louis created chances. Toronto finished. That's the game.
