Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater

Breakdown · NYR at COL

Avalanche run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalThu, Nov 20

NYRNew York Rangers3 COLColorado Avalanche6

The verdict · earned

The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 3 · COL 6

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:08 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

A 6-3 scoreline suggests a decisive but ordinary win. The underlying numbers reveal a blowout: Colorado controlled 73% of expected goals (4.54–1.69) and won shot attempts 35–19, dominating in both volume and quality.

The Avalanche's advantage stemmed from chance quality. They generated 0.057 xG per shot to the Rangers' 0.039, turning their superior volume into dangerous looks — they won the high-danger battle 6–2. S. Wedgewood, though, underperformed his expected save percentage by 1.31 goals, giving up far more than his workload suggested he should have.

I. Shesterkin was New York's bright spot, outperforming his expected save percentage by 0.54 and snatching value from the Rangers' limited chances. New York's power play offered temporary respite: two goals on 9 shots (0.64 xG) showed they could be lethal in windows where Colorado wasn't dominant.

Colorado's edge became undeniable on the rush, where they scored three goals on 36 chances. The Rangers matched them with three goals on 18 chances, meaning they needed half the volume for equal output — but that efficiency couldn't overcome Colorado's overall pressure. N. MacKinnon (2G, 1A) and C. Makar (2G, 1A) controlled play through 25 minutes each, while M. Necas produced three assists in 26:22.

The scoreboard recorded a three-goal victory. The numbers suggested it could have been wider.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 20

NYR

COL

Avalanche run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 1.7 – 4.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

1.69

COL

4.54

27% of the chances73%

The board read NYR 3, COL 6. The chances read NYR 1.7, COL 4.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

COL

+1.5

goals above expected

COL4.54 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR1.69 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 02:26NYRJ. MillerPP1–0
P1 19:33COLN. MacKinnon1–1
P2 03:58NYRA. Edstrom2–1
P2 17:15COLC. Makar2–2
P3 02:36COLB. NelsonPP2–3
P3 10:18NYRJ. MillerPP3–3
P3 10:48COLN. MacKinnon3–4

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

30 shots

Final

84 shots

COL

54 shots

NYR COL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRCOL

1 / 2

0.40 xG

High danger

2 / 6

2.14 xG

2 / 7

0.87 xG

Medium

3 / 19

1.75 xG

0 / 34

0.42 xG

Low

1 / 55

0.65 xG

The Avalanche buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Shesterkin

+0.5

NYR · 29/33

D-

S. Wedgewood

−1.3

COL · 16/19

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Avalanche run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–10

02:26NYRJ. Millerpower play(M. Zibanejad, A. Fox)1–0
19:33COLN. MacKinnon(M. Necas, S. Girard)1–1

2ndshots 4–14

03:58NYRA. Edstrom(S. Carrick, B. Schneider)2–1
17:15COLC. Makar(M. Necas, N. MacKinnon)2–2

3rdshots 9–11

02:36COLB. Nelsonpower play(S. Malinski, S. Wedgewood)2–3
10:18NYRJ. Millerpower play(A. Fox, M. Zibanejad)3–3
10:48COLN. MacKinnon(C. Makar, M. Necas)3–4
18:35COLC. Makarempty net(J. Drury)3–5
19:47COLR. Coltonempty net(B. Nelson)3–6

score reads NYR–COL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.54

COL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.5

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.005

COL puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

65.0%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.69Expected goals4.54

COL 73% of the chance quality

19Shots on goal35

2High-danger chances6

43All attempts (Corsi)80

Adjusted for score: NYR 35% · COL 65%

Faceoffs · COL won53%off47%neu23%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR1 / 2 · 0.40 xG

COL2 / 6 · 2.14 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR2 / 7 · 0.87 xG

COL3 / 19 · 1.75 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR0 / 34 · 0.42 xG

COL1 / 55 · 0.65 xG

COL went 3-for-19 from medium danger on 1.75 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

3 G · 1.69 xG · +1.3

COL

6 G · 4.54 xG · +1.5

01234567

NYR finished +1.3 against expected, COL +1.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST0/16

TIP IN3/5

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND0/0

SNAP0/2

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/13

COL

WRIST3/29

TIP IN1/10

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND1/5

SNAP0/1

WRAP AROUND1/2

OTHER0/26

NYR

COL

Off the rush

3 G on 18

1.48 xG

3 G on 36

2.72 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

1 G on 3

0.16 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 0-for-16, COL 3-for-29. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 29/33 · .879

+0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/62.1+0.1

Medium3/191.8-1.3

Low1/550.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Wedgewood

COL · 16/19 · .842

-1.3

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.4-0.6

Medium2/70.9-1.1

Low0/340.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

84 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

30 shots

Final

84 shots

COL

54 shots

NYR COL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Necas

#88 · C · COL

0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 26:22 on ice · +3

N. MacKinnon

#29 · C · COL

2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 25:09 on ice · +3

C. Makar

#8 · D · COL

2 G · 1 A · 9 SOG · 25:03 on ice · +3

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Nov 20

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:57 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model likes Colorado here. It projects a 2.3–2.9 goal spread in the Avalanche's favor, putting them at 60% win probability—a lean worth noting, though not a rout.

The Avalanche are the hotter team, sitting 8–0–2 in their last ten games. But the real edge lives in structure. Colorado dominates the underlying play with 57.0% 5v5 expected goals against New York's 48.0%, and controls territorial possession at 57.0% Corsi. This is not a close stylistic battle—the Avalanche impose their terms.

The catch: Colorado's 1.021 PDO is running hot. That's winning luck on top of skill, and luck regresses. When it does, the gap between what the Avalanche have actually won and what the underlying numbers say they should have won will close—a quiet drag on results going forward.

Colorado also grabs the rest advantage. They arrive on three days between games; New York on one. Small edges compound. If Igor Shesterkin appears on back-to-back duty, watch for early relief or a starter who isn't at full sharpness.

Players to Watch

New York

Adam Sykora — 0.91 xG/60, 3G 1A, 20.0% shooting
Gabe Perreault — 0.79 xG/60, 8G 11A, 2 HD goals, 13.1% shooting

Colorado

Artturi Lehkonen — 1.11 xG/60, 18G 22A, 6 HD goals, 14.9% shooting
Ross Colton — 1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A, 1 HD goal, 4.9% shooting

Lehkonen is the standout: his 1.11 xG/60 and six high-danger goals mark him as Colorado's most dangerous finisher. Colton mirrors that production rate at 1.10 xG/60 but at much lower shooting volume—a player overdue for variance in either direction. For New York, Sykora's 20.0% shooting is where the intrigue lives; that rate is unsustainable, but while it holds, he's a must-monitor on a team lacking consistent threat generation.

The model's confidence rests on Colorado's structural dominance and rest edge. Both are real. PDO regression is the headwind—it always is. New York's path requires Colorado to regress faster than the Avalanche's superior possession can recover, which is the longer-odds play. The model knows this math. That's why it's favoring Colorado at 60%.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 60%

60%

COL

Model favorite

40%

60%

NYR50COL

COL by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score NYR 2.3–2.9 COL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →COL

48.0%57.0%

49.0%57.0%

2.263.03

2.402.30

1.882.63

1.901.56

1.0091.021

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.021) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

6-4-0

+3 GD · 1d rest

COL

8-0-2

+23 GD · 3d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.021

COL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
I. Shesterkin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (8-0-2 in their last 10).
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Avalanche have 2 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

back-to-back.885 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

COL

Expected in goal

S. Wedgewood

3 days rest.966 last start

Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

COL

Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A

1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh

Ross Colton7G 15A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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