The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Ottawa dominated on every underlying metric — 63% of expected goals (4.37–2.53), 0.072 xG per shot against Anaheim's 0.047 — yet barely won 3–2. The Senators went 0-for-6 on high-danger chances. That margin of error nearly didn't exist.
Anaheim converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances (50%), staying afloat despite the underlying onslaught. P. Mrazek stopped all six of Ottawa's high-danger chances and finished 22-for-25 (0.880 SV%, +1.37 vs expected). One exceptional goaltending performance prevented a larger margin of victory.
Drake Batherson's tip-in from the slot (P3, 18:02) proved decisive. L. Ullmark (23/25, 0.920 SV%, +0.53 vs expected) was steady in return. Ottawa's edge was on transition — two goals on 24 rush attempts, plus three rebound chances created. Anaheim also generated three rebounds and converted one, but the volume difference was stark.
The shot attempts finished even at 25–25, but Ottawa's chances were superior in texture: 0.072 xG per shot versus 0.047. Ottawa dominated high-danger territory with six prime looks to Anaheim's four. The Senators' inability to finish most of those chances left them vulnerable.
J. Sanderson led Ottawa with 1 assist over 24:16, while S. Pinto scored in 19:36. For Anaheim, T. Terry recorded 1 assist in 19:47, nearly stealing a win against an opponent that controlled the game.