The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.32–4.22 and won anyway.
I. Shesterkin's goaltending was the only reason the Rangers survived. New York won 4-2 despite allowing 4.22 expected goals to Carolina's 3.32 — a theft built on a 0.947 save percentage that sat 2.22 goals above average.
The Hurricanes held 68% of shot attempts (38-18) and controlled 56% of expected goals at 5v5, yet managed just 2 goals. They were 0 for 5 on high-danger chances — a variance that won't last. The Rangers, meanwhile, got higher-quality looks, generating 0.072 xG per shot versus Carolina's 0.054. When the Rangers finished, they won.
Will Cuylle's wrist shot from the wing at 18:17 of the third period proved decisive. Carolina responded with rush-threat aggression, scoring 2 goals on 41 rush attempts, but couldn't close the gap.
I. Shesterkin faced 38 shots and stopped 36, turning possession dominance into a Rangers victory. F. Andersen gave up 3 goals on 17 shots on goal, unable to answer when Carolina needed stops most. A. Panarin (NYR) led the way with 1 goal and 1 assist in 22:00, while S. Gostisbehere (CAR) answered with 1 goal and 1 assist in 21:19. S. Aho (CAR) added 2 assists in 19:23.
This was process versus outcome made concrete: Carolina owned the underlying metrics and lost anyway.
