The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.31–4.77 and won anyway.
Minnesota won a game it had no right to win. The Blackhawks controlled 59% of expected goals (4.77–3.31), held 61% of shot attempts, and created more high-danger chances (7 to 5). The final score was Wild 4, Blackhawks 3 in overtime. This was a heist.
F. Gustavsson saved the night. The Minnesota goaltender stopped 34 of 37 shots (0.919 SV%) and ran 1.77 goals above expected — the margin between a regulation loss and an overtime win. S. Knight finished at 20 saves on 24 shots (0.833 SV%), running 0.69 goals below expected.
Minnesota's edge came in two places: ruthlessness in high-danger areas and efficiency on the rush. The Wild went 2 of 5 on high-danger chances (40%), while Chicago scored three goals on 34 rush attempts. Minnesota scored two goals on 18 rush chances — a sharper ratio. The Wild also scored twice from low-danger spots, the kind of finishes a cohesive defense would prevent.
Chicago's rebound crash was energetic but fruitless: 11 rebound opportunities created, none converted. Minnesota had four rebounding chances and cashed one. In a game decided by margin rather than dominance, those small edges compound.
Kirill Kaprizov's wrist shot at 01:38 of overtime ended it — a moment of execution that xG cannot predict.
