Motion-blurred skater in a Philadelphia Flyers sweater

Breakdown · PHI at NYI

Flyers steal one from the Islanders against the run of play

Final / OTFri, Nov 28

PHIPhiladelphia Flyers4 NYINew York Islanders3

The verdict · stolen

The Flyers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.67–4.25 and won anyway.

PHI 4 · NYI 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:58 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders dominated expected goals—61% at 5v5—and controlled 60% of shot attempts. The Flyers won anyway, 4-3 in a shootout. This was a heist.

S. Ersson stopped 28 of 31 shots for Philadelphia, exceeding his expected output by 1.25 goals. When a goalie plays that far above expectation in a one-goal win, he is the difference. D. Rittich made 18 saves for New York at an 0.857 save percentage.

The underlying play was never close. New York commanded 4.25 expected goals to Philadelphia's 2.67. High-danger chances split evenly at 4-4, but the Islanders' advantage lived in volume—they generated danger consistently; the Flyers converted theirs in clutch moments, including Travis Konecny's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout.

Both teams found success on the rush, but with different efficiency. New York scored 3 goals on 40 rush attempts; Philadelphia scored 2 on 18. For the Flyers to steal a win, they needed their goalie to be extraordinary and their finishes to land. They delivered both.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Nov 28

PHI

NYI

Flyers steal one from the Islanders against the run of play

Chances 2.7 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

PHI

2.67

NYI

4.25

39% of the chances61%

The board read PHI 4, NYI 3. The chances read PHI 2.7, NYI 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

PHI

+1.3

goals above expected

PHI2.67 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI4.25 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 08:30PHIT. Foerster1–0
P1 08:52PHIS. Couturier2–0
P2 01:55PHIT. ZegrasPP3–0
P2 05:42NYIE. Heineman3–1
P2 08:11NYIM. Schaefer3–2
P2 19:13NYIA. LeePP3–3
SO 00:00PHIT. ZegrasPP3–3

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

PHI

33 shots

Final

88 shots

NYI

55 shots

PHI NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 5 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

PHINYI

0 / 4

0.92 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.87 xG

1 / 10

1.26 xG

Medium

3 / 30

2.85 xG

2 / 29

0.49 xG

Low

0 / 38

0.53 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

S. Ersson

+1.3

PHI · 28/31

D. Rittich

−0.3

NYI · 18/21

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Flyers steal one from the Islanders against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 3–6

08:30PHIT. Foerster1–0
08:52PHIS. Couturier2–0

2ndshots 12–13

01:55PHIT. Zegraspower play(E. Andrae, M. Michkov)3–0
05:42NYIE. Heineman(J. Drouin, K. Palmieri)3–1
08:11NYIM. Schaefer(A. Duclair, R. Pulock)3–2
19:13NYIA. Leepower play(M. Shabanov, M. Schaefer)3–3

3rdshots 5–9no goals

OTshots 1–3no goals

00:00PHIT. Zegraspower play3–3
00:00NYIS. Holmstrompower play3–3
00:00PHIT. Konecnypower play3–3

score reads PHI–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.67

PHI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.028

PHI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

37.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.67Expected goals4.25

NYI 61% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal31

4High-danger chances4

43All attempts (Corsi)72

Adjusted for score: PHI 34% · NYI 66%

Faceoffs · NYI won62%off46%neu52%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

PHI0 / 4 · 0.92 xG

NYI0 / 4 · 0.87 xG

Medium dangermid-range

PHI1 / 10 · 1.26 xG

NYI3 / 30 · 2.85 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

PHI2 / 29 · 0.49 xG

NYI0 / 38 · 0.53 xG

PHI went 2-for-29 from low danger on 0.49 expected goals — 1.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

PHI

4 G · 2.67 xG · +1.3

NYI

3 G · 4.25 xG · -1.3

012345

PHI finished +1.3 against expected, NYI -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

PHI

WRIST2/15

SNAP1/6

TIP IN0/1

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/3

BAT0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/13

NYI

WRIST1/31

SNAP1/4

TIP IN0/7

SLAP0/5

BACKHAND0/1

BAT0/1

DEFLECTED1/1

WRAP AROUND0/2

OTHER0/20

PHI

NYI

Off the rush

2 G on 18

1.71 xG

3 G on 40

3.37 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.44 xG

0 G on 2

0.17 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: PHI went 2-for-15, NYI 1-for-31. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Ersson

PHI · 28/31 · .903

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium3/302.9-0.1

Low0/380.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich

NYI · 18/21 · .857

-0.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium1/101.3+0.3

Low2/290.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

PHI

33 shots

Final

88 shots

NYI

55 shots

PHI NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — PHI left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 28:53 on ice · +1

M. Shabanov

#49 · R · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:19 on ice

R. Pulock

#6 · D · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 20:45 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Nov 28

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:56 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.5–2.5 with the Flyers at 50% win probability. A genuine coin flip.

Philadelphia generates more scoring chances: 51.0% expected goals at 5v5 against New York's 48.0%. New York counters with shot volume: a 49.0% Corsi to 48.0%. The PDO gap—Philadelphia 1.008, New York 0.993—tells the true story. The Flyers are cashing chances faster than sustainable; the Islanders are leaving money on the table.

Owen Tippett anchors Philadelphia's offense. Nineteen goals, 18 assists, 0.88 xG per 60, shooting at 12.1%. That shooting percentage sits well above the league average—the Flyers are both creating and finishing at elite rates. Christian Dvorak compounds the problem with 12 goals, 21 assists, 0.81 xG/60, and 11.2% shooting. The gap in Dvorak's defensive reliability makes him New York's primary target.

Anders Lee is the Islanders' most prolific chance-creator: 1.20 xG per 60, the highest rate in this matchup. Yet he has only 9 goals and 20 assists on 6.4% shooting. That gap between expected output and actual output is where regression lives. Bo Horvat (18G, 10A, 0.87 xG/60) provides secondary attack volume.

Goaltending uncertainty clouds everything. I. Sorokin plays on a back-to-back and may not get the start. D. Vladar faces the same back-to-back fatigue. Expect either a backup or an exhausted starter in this one.

Alexander Romanov emerges as New York's defensive weak point. That defensive asymmetry—combined with Philadelphia's shot efficiency—should favor the Flyers on paper. The model calling it even money suggests the Islanders' volume edge is real enough to balance it out.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

PHI 50%

50%

PHI

Model favorite

50%

PHI50NYI

PHI by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score PHI 2.5–2.5 NYI; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

PHI← edge

edge →NYI

51.0%48.0%

48.0%49.0%

2.262.48

2.202.69

1.961.78

1.821.94

1.0080.993

PHI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 0.993) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

PHI

6-2-2

+1 GD · 1d rest

NYI

7-3-0

+9 GD · 1d rest

1.008

PHI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Flyers own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.

Things to watch

The Flyers own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
D. Vladar is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

PHI

Expected in goal

D. Vladar

back-to-back.926 last start

Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

back-to-back.786 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

PHI

Owen Tippett19G 18A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh

Christian Dvorak12G 21A

0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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