The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Vegas dominated possession but Montreal won the one that mattered: goaltending. The Canadiens prevailed 4–1 despite expected goals splitting 4.11–4.47, a near-even game that the Golden Knights lost 3.1 goals' worth on execution.
The shot volume belonged to Vegas—31 attempts to Montreal's 19. Yet Montreal squeezed greater danger into fewer looks, recording 0.109 expected goals per shot versus Vegas's 0.055. That efficiency gap proved decisive.
S. Montembeault stopped 30 of 31 shots and saved 3.11 goals above what the model predicted—a performance that transformed a statistically close game into a rout. A. Schmid, meanwhile, conceded 1.47 more goals than expected, meaning the narrative was written as much by save percentages (Montembeault 0.968, Schmid 0.833) as by play quality.
High-danger chances tilted Montreal's way, 11 to 8. Montreal also capitalized on transition, netting three times on 22 rush chances—a conversion rate that punished Vegas for surrendering odd-man situations. Vegas created seven rebound chances without converting any; Montreal generated three without scoring. Neither team profited from net-front chaos, but Montreal's discipline elsewhere compensated.
J. Slafkovský's wrist shot from the slot at 18:03 was the turning point. Montreal's shot quality edge proved insurmountable thereafter.
