The Sabres earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Buffalo's shot selection nearly proved their undoing. The Sabres controlled 60% of expected goals (3.81–2.57) and out-attempted Minnesota 33–24, yet went scoreless on all six high-danger chances—an inefficiency that would bury most teams.
F. Gustavsson was the difference. Buffalo's underlying dominance should have produced a blowout, but Minnesota's goaltender stopped 1.81 more goals than expected, his 0.939 save percentage keeping the Wild viable when they had no right to be.
Minnesota's offense arrived from improbable places. Both goals came from low-danger territory—the kind of play where a goaltender is expected to deliver. The Wild also capitalized on transition: two goals on 27 rush chances, a conversion rate that won't repeat, but it did on this night.
C. Ellis, Buffalo's goaltender, was competent (0.917 SV%, +0.57 vs expected), handling Minnesota's limited volume without drama. But Ellis was never asked to be spectacular.
The Sabres underperformed their xG by 0.81 goals in regulation, wasting quality chances that should have closed this out. Instead, the game went to a shootout, where Noah Ostlund's wrist shot from the doorstep ended it.
Buffalo's underlying dominance ultimately held, even if the path was messier than their numbers suggested.