Motion-blurred skater in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater

Breakdown · NSH at CAR

Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Dec 6

NSHNashville Predators3 CARCarolina Hurricanes6

The verdict · earned

The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NSH 3 · CAR 6

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:15 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Carolina's 6-3 win over Nashville was no close call — the Hurricanes controlled 66% of expected goals at 5v5 (5.49–2.89). The shot attempt split (40–22) widened the picture.

The numbers paint a blunt story. Carolina generated twice as many high-danger chances (9–5), and the quality gap was severe: Carolina's shots averaged 0.081 xG apiece; Nashville's 0.061. The Hurricanes converted when it counted—2 power-play goals on 16 shots (2.22 xG)—and punished the rush, scoring 4 times on 35 chances. Nashville countered with 3 rush goals on 24 attempts, but the volume gap was disqualifying.

The goaltending split reflected the game itself. B. Bussi (CAR) stopped 19 of 22 for 0.864 SV%. J. Saros (NSH) faced 38 shots, saved 32 (0.842 SV%), and finished 0.78 goals in the red.

Forsberg's tip-in from the doorstep (P3, 11:36) was Nashville's turning point, but Carolina had already seized the game. J. Annunen, Nashville's backup, was a perfect 2-for-2 and +5.5 GA on his cameo—spectacular noise, nothing more.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 6

NSH

CAR

Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.9 – 5.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Hurricanes earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NSH

2.89

CAR

5.49

35% of the chances66%

The board read NSH 3, CAR 6. The chances read NSH 2.9, CAR 5.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

CAR

+0.5

goals above expected

CAR5.49 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

NSH2.89 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 08:01CART. HallPP0–1
P1 09:55CARN. EhlersPP0–2
P1 19:44CARW. Carrier0–3
P2 15:46CARJ. Blake0–4
P3 04:45CARS. Aho0–5
P3 06:26NSHM. BuntingPP1–5
P3 08:12CARJ. Blake1–6

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NSH

38 shots

Final

90 shots

CAR

52 shots

NSH CAR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NSHCAR

1 / 5

1.13 xG

High danger

2 / 9

2.72 xG

1 / 10

1.14 xG

Medium

4 / 20

2.14 xG

1 / 32

0.63 xG

Low

0 / 39

0.63 xG

The Hurricanes buried 2 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Annunen

+5.5

NSH · 2/2

B. Bussi

−0.1

CAR · 19/22

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 4–19

08:01CART. Hallpower play(J. Blake, L. Stankoven)0–1
09:55CARN. Ehlerspower play(S. Jarvis, S. Gostisbehere)0–2
19:44CARW. Carrier(J. Martinook, J. Staal)0–3

2ndshots 7–14

15:46CARJ. Blake(N. Ehlers, K. Miller)0–4

3rdshots 11–7

04:45CARS. Aho0–5
06:26NSHM. Buntingpower play(L. Evangelista, E. Haula)1–5
08:12CARJ. Blake(N. Ehlers)1–6
09:09NSHM. Wood(F. Forsberg, B. Skjei)2–6
11:36NSHF. Forsberg(N. Blankenburg, S. Stastney)3–6

score reads NSH–CAR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

5.49

CAR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.5

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.024

CAR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

59.1%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.89Expected goals5.49

CAR 66% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal40

5High-danger chances9

47All attempts (Corsi)68

Adjusted for score: NSH 47% · CAR 53%

Faceoffs · CAR won63%off36%neu28%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NSH1 / 5 · 1.13 xG

CAR2 / 9 · 2.72 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NSH1 / 10 · 1.14 xG

CAR4 / 20 · 2.14 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NSH1 / 32 · 0.63 xG

CAR0 / 39 · 0.63 xG

CAR went 4-for-20 from medium danger on 2.14 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NSH

3 G · 2.89 xG · +0.1

CAR

6 G · 5.49 xG · +0.5

01234567

NSH finished +0.1 against expected, CAR +0.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NSH

WRIST0/21

SNAP1/6

BACKHAND0/3

SLAP0/4

TIP IN1/2

DEFLECTED0/0

BETWEEN LEGS1/1

BAT0/1

POKE0/0

OTHER0/9

CAR

WRIST1/13

SNAP3/21

BACKHAND1/9

SLAP0/4

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED1/2

BETWEEN LEGS0/0

BAT0/0

POKE0/1

OTHER0/16

NSH

CAR

Off the rush

3 G on 24

2.10 xG

4 G on 35

3.88 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.53 xG

1 G on 5

0.89 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NSH went 0-for-21, CAR 1-for-13. CAR scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Annunen

NSH · 2/2 · 1.000

+5.5

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/92.7+0.7

Medium4/202.1-1.9

Low0/390.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Saros

NSH · 32/38 · .842

-0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/92.7+0.7

Medium4/202.1-1.9

Low0/390.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

B. Bussi

CAR · 19/22 · .864

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.1+0.1

Medium1/101.1+0.1

Low1/320.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

90 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NSH

38 shots

Final

90 shots

CAR

52 shots

NSH CAR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, CAR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Blake

#53 · R · CAR

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 19:11 on ice · +2

N. Ehlers

#27 · L · CAR

1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 16:29 on ice · +2

F. Forsberg

#9 · L · NSH

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 13:51 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 6

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:12 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–2.9 goal game with the Hurricanes at 59% win probability. Carolina's advantage runs through the underlying metrics, which Nashville can't match.

The Predators are collapsing: -8 goal differential over their last 10 games. Their 5v5 metrics are demolished—49.0% xG% to Carolina's 56.0%, 50.0% Corsi% to the Hurricanes' 60.0%. They're dictated to territorially.

Carolina's metrics are genuine but their 0.984 PDO signals they're running cold—expect positive regression to trim the margin. F. Andersen and J. Saros are both on back-to-backs, creating risk of backup starts or tired starters that could swing the matchup.

Players to Watch

NSH

Zachary L'Heureux — 0.85 xG/60, 4G 0A, 1 HD goals, 16.0% shooting
Filip Forsberg — 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, 13.6% shooting

CAR

Jackson Blake — 1.06 xG/60, 14G 19A, 2 HD goals, 10.9% shooting
Seth Jarvis — 0.98 xG/60, 17G 12A, 1 HD goals, 11.9% shooting

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CAR 59%

59%

CAR

Model favorite

41%

59%

NSH50CAR

CAR by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score NSH 2.4–2.9 CAR; 17% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NSH← edge

edge →CAR

49.0%56.0%

50.0%60.0%

2.482.98

2.582.31

1.842.26

2.211.95

0.9920.984

CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 0.984) says NSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NSH

5-5-0

-8 GD · 1d rest

CAR

5-3-2

-2 GD · 1d rest

0.992

NSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.984

CAR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
F. Andersen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Predators are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NSH

Expected in goal

J. Saros

back-to-back.968 last start

Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CAR

Expected in goal

F. Andersen

back-to-back.826 last start

Backup Brandon Bussi · +2.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NSH

Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A

0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh

Filip Forsberg23G 17A

0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh

CAR

Jackson Blake14G 19A

1.06 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.9% sh

Seth Jarvis17G 12A

0.98 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.9% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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