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Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater
← Sun, Dec 7 · the slate
Breakdown · COL at PHI

Avalanche hold off the Flyers

FinalSun, Dec 7
COLColorado Avalanche3PHIPhiladelphia Flyers2
The verdict · coin flip

The Avalanche won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

COL 3 · PHI 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:19 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado weathered a metrics disadvantage where the Flyers generated better chances but finished with fewer goals. Philadelphia produced 3.02 expected goals to 2.83, drew 6 high-danger chances to 3, yet lost 3-2.

M. Blackwood's performance was decisive. The Colorado goaltender posted a 0.920 save percentage and stopped 1.02 goals above expected, converting the team's discipline into results. S. Ersson's 0.893 save percentage told the inverse story—he surrendered two low-danger tallies the metrics never predicted.

Both teams found the rush equally. Philadelphia scored 2 goals on 26 chances; Colorado matched it on 27 attempts. Where they diverged: the Flyers crashed the net and created 4 rebound opportunities (zero conversions), while Colorado generated 5 rebounds and buried 1.

Travis Konecny's wrist shot from the doorstep (P2, 05:58) proved the inflection point. The Avalanche held on from there.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 7
COL
3
PHI
2

Avalanche hold off the Flyers

Chances 2.8 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Avalanche took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
COL
2.83
PHI
3.02
48% of the chances52%

The board read COL 3, PHI 2. The chances read COL 2.8, PHI 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
COL
+0.2
goals above expected
COL2.83 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI3.02 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:09PHIS. Couturier0–1
  2. P1 08:28COLB. Burns1–1
  3. P1 19:08COLB. NelsonPP2–1
  4. P2 01:47COLV. Nichushkin3–1
  5. P2 05:58PHIT. Konecny3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
COL
45 shots
3
Final
84 shots
PHI
39 shots
2
COL attackPHI attack
COL PHI Goal
45
shots · 3 in
39
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
COLPHI
1 / 3
0.78 xG
High danger
1 / 6
1.45 xG
0 / 13
1.28 xG
Medium
1 / 11
1.19 xG
2 / 51
0.77 xG
Low
0 / 41
0.38 xG

High-danger looks: COL 1 of 3, PHI 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
M. Blackwood
+1.0
COL · 23/25
C
S. Ersson
−0.2
PHI · 25/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Avalanche hold off the Flyers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–3
  1. 02:09PHIS. Couturier(N. Juulsen, O. Tippett)0–1
  2. 08:28COLB. Burns(M. Necas, J. Drury)1–1
  3. 19:08COLB. Nelsonpower play(N. MacKinnon, C. Makar)2–1
2ndshots 13–9
  1. 01:47COLV. Nichushkin(V. Olofsson, D. Toews)3–1
  2. 05:58PHIT. Konecny(E. Andrae, C. Dvorak)3–2
3rdshots 3–13no goals

    score reads COL–PHI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.83
    COL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.2
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.010
    COL puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    53.6%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.83Expected goals3.02
    PHI 52% of the chance quality
    28Shots on goal25
    3High-danger chances6
    67All attempts (Corsi)58
    Adjusted for score: COL 51% · PHI 50%
    Faceoffs · PHI won40%off62%neu47%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    COL1 / 3 · 0.78 xG
    PHI1 / 6 · 1.45 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    COL0 / 13 · 1.28 xG
    PHI1 / 11 · 1.19 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    COL2 / 51 · 0.77 xG
    PHI0 / 41 · 0.38 xG

    COL went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.28 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    COL
    3 G · 2.83 xG · +0.2
    PHI
    2 G · 3.02 xG · -1.0
    01234

    COL finished +0.2 against expected, PHI -1.0.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    COL
    WRIST1/23
    SNAP2/12
    SLAP0/4
    BACKHAND0/5
    TIP IN0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/22
    PHI
    WRIST1/33
    SNAP0/0
    SLAP0/2
    BACKHAND0/0
    TIP IN1/3
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/19
    COL
    PHI
    Off the rush
    2 G on 27
    1.46 xG
    2 G on 26
    2.09 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 5
    1.05 xG
    0 G on 4
    0.71 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: COL went 1-for-23, PHI 1-for-33. COL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    M. Blackwood
    COL · 23/25 · .920
    +1.0
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/61.4+0.5
    Medium1/111.2+0.2
    Low0/410.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    S. Ersson
    PHI · 25/28 · .893
    -0.2
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/30.8-0.2
    Medium0/131.3+1.3
    Low2/510.8-1.2

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    84 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    COL
    45 shots
    3
    Final
    84 shots
    PHI
    39 shots
    2
    COL attackPHI attack
    COL PHI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — COL left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    C. Makar
    #8 · D · COL
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 25:51 on ice · +1
    N. MacKinnon
    #29 · C · COL
    0 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 22:53 on ice
    E. Andrae
    #36 · D · PHI
    0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 21:59 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sun, Dec 7
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:18 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    Colorado carries 54% win probability in this matchup. The model projects 2.6–2.4, pick'em tilted Avalanche. Genuinely close.

    The Avalanche control the play. At 5v5, they post 57.0% expected goals and 57.0% shot attempts while Philadelphia sits at 51.0% and 48.0%. That gap runs Colorado's direction—territory, pace, and shot quality all favoring the Avalanche.

    But Colorado's PDO of 1.021 reveals overperformance. They're converting at a rate regression will pull down. Philadelphia's 1.008 hovers near neutral.

    The rest advantage cuts the other way. Philadelphia arrives on three days' rest; Colorado on one. Watch whether M. Blackwood starts or Colorado turns to a backup.

    Artturi Lehkonen drives Colorado's attack at 1.11 expected goals per 60, posting 18 goals, 22 assists, and six high-danger goals. He's shooting at 14.9%, well above Ross Colton, who generates at the same rate (1.10 xG/60) but has scored only seven goals on 4.9%. That gap will eventually close.

    Philadelphia counters with Owen Tippett, running 0.88 xG per 60 on 19 goals and 18 assists with two high-danger markers. Christian Dvorak operates at slightly lower volume (0.81 xG per 60) but has posted 12 goals, 21 assists, and three high-danger chances. His goal total will drift toward his creation rate.

    The analytics favor Colorado. The rest edge and goaltending variance pull the other way. That tension is what makes this close.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    COL 54%
    54%
    COL
    Model favorite
    54%
    46%
    COL50PHI

    COL by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 2.6–2.4 PHI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    COL← edge
    edge →PHI
    57.0%51.0%
    57.0%48.0%
    3.032.26
    2.302.20
    2.631.96
    1.561.82
    1.0211.008

    COL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 1.008) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    COL
    8-1-1
    +20 GD · 1d rest
    PHI
    7-3-0
    +2 GD · 3d rest
    1.021
    COL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.008
    PHI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
    • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
    • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • M. Blackwood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
    • The Flyers have 2 more days of rest.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    COL
    Expected in goal
    M. Blackwood
    back-to-back.926 last start
    Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    PHI
    Expected in goal
    S. Ersson
    3 days rest.931 last start
    Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    COL
    Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
    1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
    Ross Colton7G 15A
    1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
    PHI
    Owen Tippett19G 18A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
    Christian Dvorak12G 21A
    0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page