Motion-blurred skater in a Minnesota Wild sweater

Breakdown · MIN at SEA

Wild run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalMon, Dec 8

The verdict · earned

The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

MIN 4 · SEA 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:38 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota's 4–1 victory was dominant by every underlying measure. The Wild controlled 67% of 5v5 expected goals (5.64–2.75), but the starkest gap was Seattle's shot profile: they held 45% of attempts (24–29) while generating only 33% of expected goals. Volume meant nothing without quality.

That quality gap extended to everything. Minnesota averaged 0.084 expected goals per shot; Seattle, 0.044. The high-danger chances split 8–4 Wild. Seattle created four rebound opportunities (converting zero) and threw bodies at the net. Minnesota created three rebounds (also zero conversions) but buried 2 goals on 33 rush chances.

Goaltending masked the margin slightly. F. Gustavsson (MIN) posted a 0.958 save percentage, stopping 1.75 goals above expected. P. Grubauer (SEA) was even more exceptional, saving 3.64 above expected on a 0.926 SV%. Both teams underperformed their xG, yet the underlying dominance still buried Seattle—the game ended as the data promised.

Vladimir Tarasenko's wrist shot from the point sealed the result.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 8

MIN

SEA

Wild run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 5.6 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Wild earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

MIN

5.64

SEA

2.75

67% of the chances33%

The board read MIN 4, SEA 1. The chances read MIN 5.6, SEA 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

MIN

−1.6

goals above expected

MIN5.64 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

SEA2.75 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Kraken left 1.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 01:18MINJ. Eriksson Ek1–0
P2 06:48SEAJ. EberlePP1–1
P3 08:12MINM. Johansson2–1
P3 18:45MINK. KaprizovEN3–1
P3 19:00MINV. TarasenkoEN4–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

MIN

46 shots

Final

91 shots

SEA

45 shots

MIN SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

MINSEA

3 / 8

3.20 xG

High danger

1 / 4

0.90 xG

0 / 16

1.83 xG

Medium

0 / 9

1.05 xG

1 / 43

0.61 xG

Low

0 / 50

0.80 xG

The Wild buried 3 of 8 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

P. Grubauer

+3.6

SEA · 25/27

F. Gustavsson

+1.8

MIN · 23/24

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Wild run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–8no goals

2ndshots 9–6

01:18MINJ. Eriksson Ek(M. Boldy, J. Middleton)1–0
06:48SEAJ. Eberlepower play(C. Stephenson, J. McCann)1–1

3rdshots 10–10

08:12MINM. Johansson(J. Eriksson Ek)2–1
18:45MINK. Kaprizovempty net(N. Sturm, J. Spurgeon)3–1
19:00MINV. Tarasenkoempty net(J. Eriksson Ek)4–1

score reads MIN–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

5.64

MIN chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.6

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.044

MIN puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

51.5%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.64Expected goals2.75

MIN 67% of the chance quality

29Shots on goal24

8High-danger chances4

67All attempts (Corsi)63

Adjusted for score: MIN 50% · SEA 50%

Faceoffs · SEA won46%off72%neu47%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

MIN3 / 8 · 3.20 xG

SEA1 / 4 · 0.90 xG

Medium dangermid-range

MIN0 / 16 · 1.83 xG

SEA0 / 9 · 1.05 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

MIN1 / 43 · 0.61 xG

SEA0 / 50 · 0.80 xG

MIN went 0-for-16 from medium danger on 1.83 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

MIN

4 G · 5.64 xG · -1.6

SEA

1 G · 2.75 xG · -1.8

0123456

MIN finished -1.6 against expected, SEA -1.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

MIN

WRIST1/24

SNAP1/7

TIP IN1/9

SLAP0/1

BACKHAND1/5

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/0

OTHER0/21

SEA

WRIST0/22

SNAP0/7

TIP IN1/5

SLAP0/8

BACKHAND0/0

DEFLECTED0/2

BAT0/1

OTHER0/18

MIN

SEA

Off the rush

2 G on 33

2.84 xG

1 G on 26

1.94 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.32 xG

0 G on 4

0.50 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 1-for-24, SEA 0-for-22. MIN scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

F. Gustavsson

MIN · 23/24 · .958

+1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.9-0.1

Medium0/91.1+1.1

Low0/500.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

P. Grubauer

SEA · 25/27 · .926

+3.6

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/83.2+0.2

Medium0/161.8+1.8

Low1/430.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

91 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

MIN

46 shots

Final

91 shots

SEA

45 shots

MIN SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Eriksson Ek

#14 · C · MIN

1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG · 21:04 on ice · +3

K. Kaprizov

#97 · L · MIN

1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 23:08 on ice · +1

M. Boldy

#12 · L · MIN

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:49 on ice · +3

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Dec 8

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:35 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.4 matchup, Minnesota favored, with the Wild at 53% win probability—that's as close to neutral as forecasts get. Both teams' recent trajectories tell you why.

Minnesota has surged to 7-2-1 over their last 10 games. Seattle has fallen apart in the same span, sitting -7 in goal differential—a decline suggesting sustained play collapse or unlucky variance in close games.

At even strength, Minnesota claims the underlying edge. The Wild post 52.0% xG to the Kraken's 46.0%, and their Corsi% advantage runs 48.0% to 45.0%. Both teams sit near neutral on PDO (MIN 1.007, SEA 1.011), meaning neither has leaned on lucky bounces.

Both starters land on back-to-backs. Watch for J. Daccord or J. Wallstedt to play in relief or appear fatigued; that variable alone could swing the game.

On offense, Matt Boldy anchors Minnesota's attack. He carries 0.89 xG/60, 22 goals, and a 13.7% shooting percentage that has converted his expected chances into actual production; he also owns 5 hard-chance goals. Robby Fabbri pairs 0.88 xG/60 with a 6.9% shooting rate, but is marked likely out. Seattle's Shane Wright checks in at 0.77 xG/60 with 8 goals and 4 hard-chance goals. Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 5 hard-chance goals) provides secondary depth.

Minnesota's Matt Kiersted represents a defensive liability; Seattle's Chandler Stephenson is the weak link on the back end. Both squads show 0% hard-goal and 0% rebound-goal rates—a tracking gap or sign both teams are starved for true high-danger chances. Minnesota's xG% edge is narrow enough that goaltending variance, fatigue, or a single hot streak flips the result.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 53%

53%

MIN

Model favorite

53%

47%

MIN50SEA

MIN by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 2.5–2.4 SEA; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

MIN← edge

edge →SEA

52.0%46.0%

48.0%45.0%

2.552.13

2.402.51

2.041.87

1.931.95

1.0071.011

MIN holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

MIN

7-2-1

+7 GD · 1d rest

SEA

4-5-1

-7 GD · 1d rest

1.007

MIN PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.

Things to watch

The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
J. Daccord is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Wallstedt is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Wild are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
The Kraken are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

MIN

Expected in goal

J. Wallstedt

back-to-back.810 last start

Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA

Expected in goal

J. Daccord

back-to-back.840 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

MIN

Matt Boldy22G 18A

0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Robby Fabbri2G 3A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page